* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GRACE AL072021 08/19/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 71 73 76 77 79 78 70 65 66 67 70 72 75 76 77 78 V (KT) LAND 70 57 44 48 49 51 43 32 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 70 59 45 47 50 55 49 34 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 14 11 7 12 12 12 14 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 2 0 2 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 338 352 5 1 349 12 351 51 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.7 29.5 30.3 30.4 30.2 30.1 28.8 28.3 28.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 166 162 173 173 172 172 149 142 148 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 164 159 173 173 168 162 142 136 142 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.4 -52.2 -52.0 -52.1 -52.0 -51.7 -51.6 -51.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.9 0.8 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 11 11 9 10 9 11 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 55 57 57 58 63 65 70 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 21 21 20 20 20 18 10 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -14 -24 -17 -12 -12 23 60 81 100 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 43 14 18 -1 9 30 23 52 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -9 -6 0 -1 -10 -1 -9 -4 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 101 -73 -77 83 214 171 -59 -255 -130 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.9 20.1 20.3 20.4 20.5 20.5 20.1 19.6 19.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 86.4 88.0 89.7 91.2 92.8 95.0 97.3 100.2 102.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 16 16 15 15 13 10 12 13 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 47 30 15 41 29 39 15 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 608 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 9. 11. 12. 13. 12. 12. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -5. -16. -24. -26. -27. -28. -28. -28. -27. -26. -25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 7. 9. 8. -0. -5. -4. -3. 0. 2. 5. 6. 7. 8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 19.9 86.4 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072021 GRACE 08/19/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.67 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 32.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.21 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.70 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.88 1.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 425.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.49 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.31 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.4 28.3 to 146.3 0.59 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.21 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 48.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.52 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.9% 16.0% 10.2% 9.5% 7.5% 10.7% 10.0% 10.4% Logistic: 3.4% 13.5% 9.5% 8.9% 6.4% 11.2% 7.6% 10.9% Bayesian: 0.7% 2.4% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 4.0% Consensus: 3.7% 10.6% 6.8% 6.2% 4.6% 7.4% 6.0% 8.4% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072021 GRACE 08/19/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072021 GRACE 08/19/2021 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 0( 4) 0( 4) 0( 4) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 2 0( 2) 0( 2) 0( 2) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 57 44 48 49 51 43 32 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 70 69 56 60 61 63 55 44 40 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 12HR AGO 70 67 66 70 71 73 65 54 50 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 61 63 55 44 40 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT