* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LINDA EP122021 08/19/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 52 46 42 38 34 31 29 26 26 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 52 46 42 38 34 31 29 26 26 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 52 46 42 39 36 34 32 31 28 25 22 19 17 16 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 7 6 6 7 10 11 16 22 25 38 42 48 45 44 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 1 1 4 3 6 6 5 -4 -6 -7 -4 -1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 235 248 256 251 253 240 234 211 221 231 252 243 242 236 233 N/A N/A SST (C) 24.6 23.8 24.1 24.2 24.5 24.8 24.9 25.3 25.7 26.1 26.4 26.9 27.0 27.7 27.4 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 110 102 105 106 109 112 112 116 120 125 128 134 135 142 139 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.1 -52.0 -51.9 -52.1 -52.0 -52.2 -52.5 -53.0 -53.5 -54.2 -54.2 -54.4 -54.8 -54.8 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.1 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.6 -0.3 -0.2 0.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 3 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 8 8 9 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 36 34 32 33 31 28 30 29 31 31 30 30 32 37 45 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 16 15 15 14 13 13 12 11 12 9 8 7 6 5 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 47 40 35 43 30 35 31 28 23 8 -12 -24 -31 -29 -30 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -16 -17 0 14 19 -10 0 -5 1 -1 12 -5 -17 -9 3 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -1 -2 2 5 1 6 4 0 -3 -2 -1 0 1 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1882 1725 1568 1408 1248 973 736 521 380 254 181 146 301 548 807 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.8 20.1 20.4 20.6 20.8 21.1 21.4 21.8 22.2 22.7 23.2 23.5 23.6 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 136.8 138.3 139.8 141.4 142.9 145.6 148.0 150.4 152.4 154.7 157.3 159.9 162.5 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 15 15 14 12 11 10 10 12 12 12 12 12 12 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 5 8 14 7 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 522 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -11. -12. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. -1. -6. -11. -17. -22. -27. -29. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE -5. -7. -8. -8. -7. -5. -4. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. -8. -10. -10. -13. -14. -14. -14. -13. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -10. -10. -10. -9. -7. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -8. -14. -18. -22. -26. -29. -31. -34. -34. -41. -47. -53. -57. -59. -61. -62. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 19.8 136.8 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122021 LINDA 08/19/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 46.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.06 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.03 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.17 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.1 19.6 to 1.3 0.74 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.63 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 575.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.25 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 73.6 56.6 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.38 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122021 LINDA 08/19/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##