* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LINDA EP122021 08/19/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 37 32 30 27 25 24 22 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 37 32 30 27 25 24 22 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 36 30 26 24 22 22 21 20 19 17 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 10 9 10 11 13 16 22 23 38 37 45 46 46 38 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 0 0 1 6 1 7 4 -5 -2 -6 -5 0 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 242 259 252 255 253 225 214 215 230 248 243 238 240 238 231 N/A N/A SST (C) 24.2 24.6 24.4 24.6 24.7 24.9 25.1 25.7 25.9 26.2 26.5 27.3 27.2 27.5 27.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 107 111 108 110 111 112 114 120 123 126 130 138 137 140 140 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.0 -51.9 -52.0 -52.1 -52.2 -52.5 -53.0 -53.8 -54.2 -54.7 -54.6 -54.9 -54.9 -55.1 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.8 1.0 0.7 0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 -0.4 -0.3 0.1 0.5 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 5 5 7 7 8 8 9 8 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 33 33 33 32 30 28 30 31 34 33 31 32 36 42 50 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 15 15 14 13 13 12 11 10 8 7 6 5 6 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 39 41 48 34 32 34 26 35 21 6 -14 -22 -29 -30 -25 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -6 20 20 23 9 -8 -5 -11 6 4 -4 -14 -21 4 15 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -2 1 1 2 7 4 1 0 0 -3 1 0 6 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1684 1521 1359 1208 1058 802 575 383 230 113 68 143 401 666 946 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.6 19.8 20.0 20.2 20.4 20.7 21.0 21.4 21.6 22.0 22.4 22.7 22.8 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 138.7 140.3 141.8 143.3 144.7 147.2 149.5 151.7 153.8 156.1 158.7 161.3 164.0 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 14 14 13 11 10 10 10 11 12 12 12 13 12 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 8 19 10 12 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 641 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 5.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. -3. -8. -14. -19. -24. -29. -33. -36. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE -6. -10. -12. -12. -10. -8. -7. -5. -5. -5. -4. -5. -4. -4. -5. -4. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 0. 0. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -10. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -8. -10. -11. -11. -12. -9. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -8. -9. -10. -11. -13. -13. -14. -13. -11. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -8. -13. -15. -18. -20. -21. -23. -25. -28. -34. -40. -46. -50. -50. -53. -55. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 19.6 138.7 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122021 LINDA 08/19/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 64.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.22 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -30.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.24 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.0 19.6 to 1.3 0.52 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.81 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 429.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.42 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 78.9 56.6 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.33 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122021 LINDA 08/19/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##