* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LINDA EP122021 08/21/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 33 33 32 31 26 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 33 33 32 31 26 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 34 32 31 29 25 21 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 16 18 23 26 29 41 41 35 30 26 22 15 14 15 13 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 6 3 4 7 0 -1 0 3 2 1 -2 -1 0 -1 -1 1 SHEAR DIR 222 222 215 209 211 228 238 254 254 247 257 272 266 260 251 268 252 SST (C) 25.0 25.1 25.1 25.2 25.3 25.5 25.6 25.7 26.0 26.2 26.5 26.9 27.1 27.0 27.2 27.6 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 114 113 112 113 114 116 116 118 122 125 128 132 133 131 132 137 140 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.6 -52.8 -53.0 -53.3 -54.1 -54.1 -54.5 -54.4 -54.5 -54.7 -54.9 -54.5 -54.4 -54.2 -54.2 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.5 0.1 -0.3 -0.6 -0.5 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 4 4 5 4 5 4 5 5 6 6 7 6 6 700-500 MB RH 31 32 33 33 35 35 33 28 25 23 23 26 29 33 35 38 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 11 11 11 11 9 7 6 4 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 850 MB ENV VOR 53 39 41 39 42 17 5 6 9 5 16 28 24 12 11 14 16 200 MB DIV -4 0 16 16 -2 -3 -12 -23 -28 -34 -21 -23 -16 -18 -9 -15 -11 700-850 TADV -1 -2 0 3 3 2 -2 -6 -11 -11 -17 -9 -7 -2 -4 -2 -1 LAND (KM) 784 680 608 560 516 459 418 347 227 93 130 258 382 476 539 611 663 LAT (DEG N) 19.8 19.9 20.1 20.4 20.7 21.3 21.7 21.5 20.7 19.5 18.0 16.6 15.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 147.3 148.3 149.0 149.5 150.0 150.8 151.5 152.2 153.0 153.9 154.9 155.8 156.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 8 6 6 5 4 4 4 7 8 9 7 6 4 3 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 11 7 4 5 10 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 713 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 2.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 8. 10. 12. 14. 14. 14. 13. 13. 13. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -3. -10. -19. -26. -30. -31. -30. -28. -27. -28. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -8. -11. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -8. -11. -12. -13. -14. -12. -11. -10. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -9. -10. -12. -14. -14. -15. -13. -11. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -2. -3. -4. -9. -15. -24. -35. -43. -48. -51. -50. -49. -47. -46. -46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 19.8 147.3 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122021 LINDA 08/21/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.35 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.20 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.9 19.6 to 1.3 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.85 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 312.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.55 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 86.6 56.6 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.33 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122021 LINDA 08/21/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##