* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LINDA EP122021 08/21/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 32 31 30 25 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 34 32 31 30 25 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 34 33 31 28 24 19 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 18 23 28 30 33 44 42 32 28 23 17 13 11 12 8 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 4 6 6 4 1 -4 0 5 3 1 -1 0 0 0 4 2 SHEAR DIR 224 216 210 215 225 234 253 254 257 246 254 260 264 255 262 272 250 SST (C) 24.8 25.0 25.2 25.3 25.5 25.7 25.7 25.8 25.9 26.3 26.4 27.2 26.6 26.8 27.6 27.9 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 110 112 113 114 116 118 117 119 121 126 127 135 128 129 138 141 139 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.8 -53.0 -53.3 -53.6 -54.1 -54.4 -54.4 -54.4 -54.6 -55.0 -54.7 -54.5 -54.3 -54.3 -54.4 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.1 -0.3 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 5 5 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 32 33 33 34 35 35 32 26 23 23 24 26 27 31 33 32 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 11 11 11 11 9 6 5 4 3 2 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 44 37 44 42 29 0 -1 -1 2 1 10 13 16 10 15 12 15 200 MB DIV 2 11 15 -5 2 -16 -5 -33 -28 -26 -28 -15 -15 -1 -11 -4 -15 700-850 TADV -3 -1 3 3 2 1 -3 -10 -10 -14 -15 -12 -8 -4 -5 -4 -5 LAND (KM) 701 620 560 516 489 450 399 307 164 14 114 280 418 531 634 738 853 LAT (DEG N) 20.0 20.2 20.4 20.7 21.1 21.8 21.9 21.5 20.6 19.4 17.9 16.6 15.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 148.1 148.9 149.5 150.0 150.4 151.2 151.9 152.7 153.7 154.7 155.7 156.7 157.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 6 5 5 4 4 5 7 9 9 7 6 5 5 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 13 2 3 11 17 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 667 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 9. 11. 13. 14. 15. 14. 13. 13. 14. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 0. -4. -13. -22. -29. -33. -32. -31. -28. -27. -28. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -7. -8. -11. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -8. -11. -13. -14. -14. -13. -11. -10. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -12. -12. -13. -12. -10. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -4. -5. -10. -18. -28. -39. -47. -51. -53. -52. -50. -48. -46. -46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 20.0 148.1 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122021 LINDA 08/21/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.34 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.20 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.4 19.6 to 1.3 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.75 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 308.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.56 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 89.2 56.6 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.32 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122021 LINDA 08/21/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##