* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LINDA EP122021 08/21/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 32 31 29 25 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 34 32 31 29 25 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 34 33 31 28 24 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 22 27 28 29 39 43 38 31 27 20 14 13 11 9 9 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 6 8 5 0 0 -5 3 1 3 -1 0 1 1 1 4 1 SHEAR DIR 218 208 214 225 230 241 254 250 241 242 250 254 262 260 265 257 258 SST (C) 25.0 25.2 25.4 25.6 25.7 25.7 25.8 25.8 26.2 26.4 27.2 26.7 26.9 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 112 113 115 117 118 117 119 120 125 127 136 129 131 137 137 138 141 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.0 -53.3 -53.6 -53.8 -54.0 -54.1 -54.0 -54.5 -54.6 -54.8 -54.5 -54.5 -54.3 -54.5 -54.5 -54.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 -0.2 -0.4 -0.4 -0.6 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 32 33 33 34 34 32 27 23 22 23 25 28 32 35 37 35 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 11 11 10 8 6 5 3 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 42 43 48 30 14 11 -1 0 2 8 16 17 13 9 9 7 5 200 MB DIV 13 12 -1 0 2 -9 -26 -28 -24 -29 -12 0 -15 -12 -14 -4 -18 700-850 TADV 0 3 3 2 0 -3 -7 -10 -12 -20 -17 -11 -6 -6 -5 -6 -6 LAND (KM) 609 540 496 466 436 407 336 222 56 28 234 410 550 657 785 913 1062 LAT (DEG N) 20.2 20.4 20.7 21.0 21.4 21.9 21.8 21.2 20.1 18.7 17.2 16.0 15.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 149.0 149.7 150.2 150.6 151.1 151.8 152.6 153.5 154.6 155.8 157.0 158.1 158.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 5 5 5 3 4 7 8 9 9 7 6 6 6 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 16 4 5 15 22 27 37 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 670 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 11. 13. 15. 15. 15. 14. 15. 15. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -5. -14. -23. -29. -32. -32. -30. -28. -26. -26. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -7. -8. -11. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -8. -11. -13. -13. -13. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -10. -8. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -4. -6. -10. -16. -26. -37. -44. -48. -49. -47. -46. -43. -42. -41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 20.2 149.0 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122021 LINDA 08/21/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.37 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.20 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.5 19.6 to 1.3 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.54 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 304.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.56 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 84.3 56.6 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.30 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122021 LINDA 08/21/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##