* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LINDA EP122021 08/22/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 39 37 35 33 27 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 39 37 35 33 27 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 40 39 37 34 28 23 18 15 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 27 30 29 30 41 43 37 31 24 20 16 16 15 12 12 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 6 4 1 4 -2 -1 1 3 3 0 -1 -2 -2 -1 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 205 210 221 228 234 252 252 251 252 255 255 255 262 280 284 290 282 SST (C) 25.2 25.5 25.7 25.7 25.7 25.7 25.8 25.9 26.5 26.5 27.3 26.9 27.2 27.3 27.4 27.5 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 114 117 118 118 118 117 119 121 128 128 136 132 134 135 136 138 140 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.2 -53.6 -53.9 -54.0 -54.2 -54.3 -54.5 -54.6 -54.8 -54.7 -54.5 -54.3 -54.3 -54.5 -54.5 -54.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.5 -0.4 -0.5 -0.5 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 33 32 33 32 31 28 24 21 21 23 24 27 30 36 35 36 35 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 11 11 10 10 7 6 4 3 2 2 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 44 44 29 12 3 -3 -8 -2 1 3 5 17 21 17 20 19 22 200 MB DIV 8 -8 -4 0 -15 -6 -29 -20 -32 -26 -16 -15 -2 -12 -1 -16 -30 700-850 TADV 3 4 4 2 0 -4 -9 -10 -14 -16 -18 -11 -6 -5 -4 -3 -3 LAND (KM) 544 482 445 424 407 364 276 153 5 89 266 433 587 718 843 967 1067 LAT (DEG N) 20.6 20.9 21.2 21.5 21.9 22.2 21.9 21.2 20.2 18.9 17.6 16.4 15.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 149.7 150.4 150.9 151.3 151.8 152.6 153.5 154.5 155.6 156.7 157.9 158.9 159.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 5 5 5 4 5 6 8 9 8 8 6 6 6 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 16 11 14 29 27 28 37 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 642 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 12. 12. 11. 11. 11. 11. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -8. -16. -24. -30. -33. -33. -32. -30. -29. -29. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -7. -9. -12. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -6. -10. -12. -14. -14. -14. -13. -11. -10. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -9. -7. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -5. -7. -13. -20. -31. -42. -49. -52. -53. -52. -51. -48. -47. -46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 20.6 149.7 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122021 LINDA 08/22/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.34 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.15 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.4 19.6 to 1.3 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.44 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 348.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.51 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 91.8 56.6 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.36 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122021 LINDA 08/22/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##