* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LINDA EP122021 08/22/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 38 37 35 33 26 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 38 37 35 33 26 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 39 36 33 30 25 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 26 29 29 31 37 43 42 36 30 23 17 13 13 9 9 9 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 5 3 4 4 -2 1 2 3 -1 0 -1 -2 0 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 206 217 225 233 243 249 248 250 254 259 260 260 266 274 262 283 279 SST (C) 25.6 25.8 25.8 25.8 25.8 25.8 25.9 26.4 26.5 27.3 27.0 27.0 27.3 27.4 27.5 27.5 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 118 120 119 119 119 119 121 126 128 136 133 132 135 136 138 138 139 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.5 -53.9 -54.0 -54.1 -54.4 -54.3 -54.7 -54.7 -54.8 -54.5 -54.6 -54.4 -54.5 -54.4 -54.3 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.5 -0.4 -0.5 -0.5 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 5 6 6 7 6 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 32 31 32 30 30 25 22 23 22 23 25 29 33 34 34 36 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 10 9 8 6 4 3 2 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 48 29 18 7 2 -2 -4 0 4 8 12 22 23 17 12 14 14 200 MB DIV -8 -5 -9 -14 -18 -20 -24 -29 -17 -17 -1 -3 -5 -3 -23 -37 -35 700-850 TADV 2 1 0 0 -2 -5 -12 -10 -18 -17 -18 -10 -9 -7 -7 -6 -5 LAND (KM) 446 389 359 346 328 267 170 44 72 229 388 552 698 830 932 1047 1182 LAT (DEG N) 20.7 21.0 21.3 21.6 21.8 21.8 21.4 20.6 19.6 18.3 17.2 16.0 15.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 150.7 151.4 151.9 152.3 152.7 153.5 154.5 155.6 156.7 157.9 159.0 160.0 161.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 5 4 4 4 6 7 8 8 8 7 6 6 7 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 10 25 17 25 23 23 35 37 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 653 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 1.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 12. 12. 12. 12. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. -0. -0. -3. -9. -17. -25. -31. -34. -33. -31. -28. -27. -27. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -7. -9. -12. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -12. -14. -13. -13. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -9. -10. -12. -14. -14. -15. -14. -11. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -5. -7. -14. -24. -36. -46. -52. -55. -56. -54. -53. -50. -49. -49. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 20.7 150.7 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122021 LINDA 08/22/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.35 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -10.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.12 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 30.4 19.6 to 1.3 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.87 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 362.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.50 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 95.2 56.6 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.34 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122021 LINDA 08/22/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##