* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LINDA EP122021 08/22/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 33 31 29 27 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 33 31 29 27 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 32 30 27 24 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 29 29 32 38 41 42 39 35 27 19 18 19 16 14 17 20 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 4 4 3 0 2 2 0 1 0 -2 0 3 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 219 230 239 245 251 244 247 253 260 260 252 258 262 254 254 262 268 SST (C) 25.7 25.8 25.7 25.7 25.8 25.9 26.3 26.8 27.0 27.1 27.1 27.1 27.1 27.0 27.0 27.2 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 119 120 118 118 118 120 125 131 133 134 134 134 133 132 132 135 141 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.9 -54.1 -54.1 -54.3 -54.5 -54.5 -54.7 -54.8 -54.6 -54.6 -54.5 -54.5 -54.5 -54.5 -54.4 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.5 -0.5 -0.4 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 6 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 31 31 31 30 27 23 21 21 23 25 30 32 36 37 38 40 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 9 8 7 5 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 37 26 8 5 -8 -8 -9 1 8 5 19 17 20 11 16 17 23 200 MB DIV 2 -6 -11 -9 0 -29 -23 -22 -16 2 1 9 11 21 -5 -17 -20 700-850 TADV 2 0 0 -1 -3 -7 -7 -12 -14 -16 -13 -9 -8 -8 -9 -10 -10 LAND (KM) 351 297 277 244 222 152 26 62 229 398 548 681 797 879 978 1111 1294 LAT (DEG N) 20.8 21.0 21.3 21.4 21.5 21.4 20.9 20.2 19.1 18.0 16.9 15.9 15.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 151.7 152.4 152.9 153.4 153.8 154.7 155.8 157.1 158.3 159.6 160.9 162.0 163.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 5 4 4 5 6 8 8 8 8 7 6 5 7 8 10 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 4 6 24 17 12 11 11 22 33 26 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 709 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 13. 15. 17. 18. 17. 17. 17. 17. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. -2. -8. -17. -26. -32. -34. -34. -33. -30. -30. -31. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -7. -8. -11. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -13. -14. -13. -13. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -14. -14. -15. -14. -12. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -6. -8. -13. -22. -34. -44. -49. -51. -52. -50. -49. -48. -48. -50. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 20.8 151.7 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122021 LINDA 08/22/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.40 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.15 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 33.8 19.6 to 1.3 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.85 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 320.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.54 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 91.8 56.6 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.35 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122021 LINDA 08/22/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##