* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LINDA EP122021 08/22/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 32 30 28 26 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 32 30 28 26 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 33 30 27 25 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 30 33 37 43 44 42 39 32 27 19 21 16 16 18 20 27 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 5 5 2 0 3 2 2 0 3 -2 0 3 6 3 1 0 SHEAR DIR 230 242 246 250 245 246 247 252 262 256 258 265 251 237 239 247 258 SST (C) 25.8 25.8 25.8 25.8 25.9 26.3 26.9 27.1 27.3 27.3 27.2 27.0 26.8 27.1 27.5 27.6 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 120 120 119 119 120 125 132 134 136 136 135 132 130 133 138 139 141 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -54.1 -54.2 -54.3 -54.5 -54.3 -54.6 -54.6 -54.9 -54.5 -54.8 -54.6 -54.6 -54.6 -54.7 -54.4 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.5 -0.5 -0.4 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 700-500 MB RH 30 29 28 24 22 20 21 21 25 26 32 35 36 38 39 40 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 8 6 6 5 3 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 26 8 3 -9 -4 -10 -10 4 10 17 19 20 19 10 10 4 5 200 MB DIV -7 -8 -6 -1 -16 -30 -37 -19 -12 15 16 23 -2 20 -7 -12 -3 700-850 TADV 0 0 -2 -4 -4 -9 -7 -15 -17 -17 -15 -11 -11 -12 -12 -11 -12 LAND (KM) 272 230 207 184 149 46 25 160 322 442 600 726 831 925 1029 1150 1311 LAT (DEG N) 21.0 21.2 21.4 21.5 21.5 21.2 20.7 19.9 18.9 17.9 16.8 16.1 15.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 152.7 153.4 153.9 154.4 154.8 155.9 157.2 158.5 159.9 161.1 162.4 163.6 164.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 5 4 5 5 7 8 8 8 7 6 6 6 7 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 1 8 8 16 21 12 9 11 28 40 33 29 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 700 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 14. 16. 18. 19. 18. 18. 18. 19. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 0. -3. -9. -18. -27. -32. -35. -34. -33. -31. -31. -33. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -7. -8. -11. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -6. -8. -11. -12. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. -2. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -10. -10. -11. -9. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -7. -9. -13. -21. -30. -39. -43. -45. -44. -43. -42. -41. -43. -46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 21.0 152.7 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122021 LINDA 08/22/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.40 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.13 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 37.6 19.6 to 1.3 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.44 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 339.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.52 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 87.8 56.6 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.30 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122021 LINDA 08/22/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##