* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LINDA EP122021 08/23/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 38 36 34 32 27 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 38 36 34 32 28 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 39 37 34 31 24 22 19 17 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 34 38 42 45 44 42 39 35 29 27 23 24 22 25 27 31 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 4 1 -1 1 2 1 1 2 0 -2 0 6 3 2 0 0 SHEAR DIR 241 247 248 243 241 246 250 257 259 254 262 256 245 243 243 255 262 SST (C) 25.8 25.9 26.0 26.2 26.3 26.8 27.3 27.1 27.5 27.4 27.1 26.9 26.9 27.4 27.6 27.6 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 121 121 121 123 124 130 136 134 138 137 133 131 131 136 139 139 140 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.2 -54.3 -54.5 -54.4 -54.5 -54.6 -54.8 -54.7 -54.8 -54.6 -54.5 -54.6 -54.7 -54.6 -54.5 -54.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.5 -0.4 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 -0.4 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 700-500 MB RH 29 28 24 22 21 19 20 23 24 28 32 36 38 40 41 44 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 8 7 6 6 4 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 850 MB ENV VOR 13 6 -7 0 -6 -17 -14 -1 0 15 14 17 20 16 7 10 5 200 MB DIV -3 -13 1 -13 -29 -29 -33 -18 -3 10 14 13 12 15 0 -3 1 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -3 -4 -7 -4 -11 -15 -16 -16 -12 -11 -10 -11 -10 -11 -8 LAND (KM) 184 148 110 82 45 1 93 212 334 484 634 746 848 960 1069 1200 1356 LAT (DEG N) 21.0 21.2 21.3 21.4 21.3 21.1 20.6 19.9 18.9 17.9 17.0 16.5 16.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 153.8 154.6 155.1 155.6 156.1 157.3 158.6 159.9 161.1 162.3 163.5 164.6 165.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 6 5 5 5 6 7 8 8 8 7 5 5 6 6 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 1 9 15 10 22 18 11 10 18 38 38 32 26 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 732 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 12. 14. 15. 15. 15. 15. 15. 15. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -12. -20. -29. -35. -38. -39. -38. -37. -37. -40. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -7. -8. -11. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -3. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. -8. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -2. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -12. -12. -12. -11. -9. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -6. -7. -13. -22. -33. -42. -47. -49. -50. -50. -50. -50. -52. -56. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 21.0 153.8 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122021 LINDA 08/23/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.38 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -11.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.11 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 40.6 19.6 to 1.3 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 406.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.45 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 82.0 56.6 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.23 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122021 LINDA 08/23/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##