* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARTY EP132021 08/23/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 39 40 40 38 36 33 29 23 19 20 22 24 27 28 30 V (KT) LAND 35 37 39 40 40 38 36 33 29 23 19 20 22 24 27 28 30 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 38 38 37 34 30 26 22 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 9 9 9 9 11 10 15 14 15 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 3 1 2 3 0 5 -3 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 28 30 34 76 88 90 84 89 151 174 176 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.4 28.2 27.2 26.8 26.6 25.9 25.9 25.3 25.3 25.0 25.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 150 148 137 133 130 123 122 116 116 113 117 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.1 -50.8 -50.7 -50.9 -51.2 -51.4 -52.0 -52.2 -52.5 -52.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 72 68 67 68 67 63 61 62 59 55 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 15 15 16 16 14 12 10 9 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 65 60 59 42 38 44 56 52 57 51 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 13 -12 4 12 19 -10 -2 15 -15 -48 -48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -14 -9 0 3 3 11 1 6 4 11 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 335 353 433 533 604 800 978 1123 1261 1435 1629 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 110.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 13 12 12 10 8 8 9 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 14 17 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 502 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 14. 16. 16. 17. 16. 15. 14. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. -0. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. -15. -15. -17. -19. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -6. -10. -11. -10. -9. -8. -7. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 5. 3. 1. -2. -6. -12. -16. -15. -13. -11. -8. -7. -5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 19.9 110.3 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132021 MARTY 08/23/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.59 4.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.21 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.9 19.6 to 1.3 0.58 3.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.61 2.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 114.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.78 -3.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.04 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.45 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.7% 16.4% 14.7% 13.4% 8.0% 12.6% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 2.9% 1.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.8% 6.4% 5.5% 4.5% 2.7% 4.2% 0.0% 0.1% DTOPS: 1.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132021 MARTY 08/23/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##