* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LINDA EP122021 08/23/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 38 37 36 33 27 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 38 34 36 34 27 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 39 36 35 32 26 22 19 17 16 16 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 42 44 45 45 41 43 36 27 23 21 30 30 35 40 46 44 52 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 0 2 3 0 3 8 3 0 0 8 7 4 4 7 1 SHEAR DIR 243 239 239 243 244 249 264 257 269 260 250 239 238 234 240 247 261 SST (C) 26.0 26.2 26.4 26.7 26.9 27.1 27.2 27.4 27.2 27.1 27.3 27.6 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.2 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 123 124 126 129 131 134 135 137 135 134 135 138 142 143 143 145 145 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.4 -54.3 -54.2 -54.3 -54.5 -54.6 -54.5 -54.6 -54.5 -54.5 -54.6 -54.9 -54.9 -55.0 -54.6 -54.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 -0.5 -0.4 -0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 25 23 23 20 20 21 23 24 28 30 35 38 42 44 45 46 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 6 5 4 3 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 2 2 2 2 850 MB ENV VOR -3 -1 0 -5 -15 -16 -8 -1 17 19 23 11 9 2 -4 -6 -2 200 MB DIV 2 -18 -27 -35 -34 -27 -22 -7 12 53 28 11 28 14 26 15 0 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -6 -7 -5 -9 -16 -16 -18 -16 -14 -14 -13 -13 -18 -12 -10 LAND (KM) 58 20 0 11 33 131 192 333 495 676 806 919 1038 1163 1305 1422 1538 LAT (DEG N) 21.0 21.1 21.1 21.1 21.0 20.7 20.1 19.3 18.4 17.5 17.1 16.9 16.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 155.5 156.2 156.8 157.4 158.0 159.3 160.6 162.0 163.3 164.8 166.1 167.3 168.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 6 6 7 8 8 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 0 1 3 7 11 9 14 33 18 17 32 44 44 29 19 22 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 721 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 10. 12. 14. 16. 16. 17. 17. 17. 18. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -13. -20. -28. -33. -36. -38. -39. -40. -43. -48. -51. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -8. -10. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -14. -14. -15. -14. -12. -12. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -4. -7. -13. -22. -32. -40. -43. -45. -47. -48. -51. -54. -58. -64. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 21.0 155.5 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122021 LINDA 08/23/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.42 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -22.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.06 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 43.4 19.6 to 1.3 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.92 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 431.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.42 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.02 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 78.9 56.6 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.20 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122021 LINDA 08/23/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##