* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LINDA EP122021 08/23/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 33 31 30 28 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 33 32 30 28 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 32 30 27 24 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 43 43 45 42 43 42 31 27 30 31 33 31 37 43 48 53 59 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 3 4 2 0 8 8 2 2 3 11 5 6 3 2 -4 SHEAR DIR 242 239 243 244 245 256 263 251 252 246 251 242 237 243 252 251 263 SST (C) 26.2 26.4 26.6 26.9 27.1 27.1 27.4 27.3 27.1 27.2 27.5 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 124 126 128 131 133 134 137 136 134 134 137 140 142 143 144 145 144 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.3 -54.2 -54.3 -54.4 -54.6 -54.6 -54.4 -54.6 -54.4 -54.6 -54.8 -55.0 -54.6 -54.7 -54.4 -54.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 -0.5 -0.4 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 6 7 6 7 7 8 7 8 7 8 8 9 8 700-500 MB RH 24 22 20 20 20 20 23 25 30 32 38 42 45 47 49 50 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 5 4 3 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -1 0 -6 -15 -21 -10 -4 3 22 22 20 8 8 -8 -7 -9 2 200 MB DIV -17 -33 -32 -30 -36 -27 -14 -2 41 39 30 44 12 15 18 -5 12 700-850 TADV -2 -6 -7 -5 -6 -16 -17 -18 -19 -16 -13 -14 -12 -14 -14 -9 -7 LAND (KM) 20 4 12 21 70 144 258 412 592 752 863 958 1065 1185 1296 1398 1495 LAT (DEG N) 21.1 21.2 21.2 21.1 21.0 20.5 19.7 18.9 17.9 17.3 17.1 17.1 17.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 156.2 156.8 157.4 158.1 158.7 160.0 161.3 162.7 164.1 165.6 166.8 167.9 169.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 7 6 5 6 6 7 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 1 2 6 11 11 9 29 25 16 25 40 45 39 24 19 22 22 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 668 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 12. 16. 18. 20. 21. 21. 22. 22. 23. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -10. -18. -27. -34. -39. -41. -42. -43. -46. -52. -57. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -10. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -14. -14. -15. -14. -12. -12. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -5. -7. -13. -21. -31. -38. -43. -47. -49. -50. -52. -54. -59. -65. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 21.1 156.2 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122021 LINDA 08/23/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.49 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -29.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.02 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 43.3 19.6 to 1.3 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.94 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 385.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.47 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.03 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 81.2 56.6 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.34 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122021 LINDA 08/23/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##