* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARTY EP132021 08/23/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 38 36 34 30 26 23 20 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 40 38 36 34 30 26 23 20 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 41 40 39 37 32 27 22 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 8 10 10 12 10 13 4 2 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 1 3 6 2 5 -1 3 -4 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 28 49 63 67 71 65 63 144 203 224 208 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.1 26.5 26.2 26.0 25.7 25.5 25.2 25.3 25.2 25.0 24.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 136 130 126 124 120 118 115 116 116 114 111 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -50.7 -50.9 -51.1 -51.2 -51.5 -52.0 -52.2 -52.3 -52.5 -52.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 67 67 65 64 59 55 54 52 49 44 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 14 13 13 12 10 8 6 5 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 53 44 34 29 37 39 36 41 38 38 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 6 11 14 -4 -19 -11 -9 -16 -26 -41 -44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 1 0 3 10 4 9 3 11 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 421 511 596 690 792 972 1118 1275 1477 1724 1979 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.8 20.8 20.9 20.9 20.8 20.7 20.6 20.5 20.4 19.9 19.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 113.4 114.9 116.3 117.5 118.7 120.7 122.7 124.7 127.1 129.6 132.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 12 11 10 9 9 10 11 12 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 500 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -11. -13. -14. -14. -15. -15. -16. -18. -20. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -8. -12. -14. -17. -16. -15. -13. -12. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -4. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -2. -4. -6. -10. -14. -17. -20. -22. -26. -25. -24. -22. -17. -15. -12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 20.8 113.4 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132021 MARTY 08/23/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.43 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.18 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.9 19.6 to 1.3 0.53 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.27 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 161.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.72 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.86 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.2% 9.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 3.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132021 MARTY 08/23/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##