* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LINDA EP122021 08/24/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 27 26 25 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 28 27 26 25 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 27 25 22 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 46 48 44 46 45 43 35 38 38 44 45 47 51 52 50 43 42 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 5 3 3 2 10 6 3 1 2 6 1 1 0 1 -3 SHEAR DIR 237 242 243 243 247 260 252 255 244 241 237 238 245 246 247 259 260 SST (C) 26.6 26.8 27.0 27.0 27.2 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.7 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 28.1 28.2 28.4 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 129 130 132 132 134 139 138 138 140 141 141 142 142 144 145 147 147 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.2 -54.3 -54.4 -54.7 -54.7 -54.7 -54.7 -54.8 -55.0 -55.1 -55.4 -55.2 -55.2 -55.3 -55.4 -55.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.5 -0.6 -0.7 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 9 9 700-500 MB RH 22 20 20 20 20 21 23 28 32 37 42 46 48 52 55 59 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 5 3 3 2 2 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -1 -2 -12 -17 -21 -11 -14 5 7 7 0 1 -6 -10 -17 -14 -11 200 MB DIV -32 -36 -26 -28 -17 -3 -6 26 54 38 52 34 16 9 19 0 -1 700-850 TADV -6 -8 -6 -5 -8 -15 -15 -17 -17 -15 -13 -12 -12 -5 -6 -3 -4 LAND (KM) 12 9 72 65 66 187 322 473 628 746 848 966 1073 1194 1320 1460 1603 LAT (DEG N) 21.2 21.3 21.3 21.3 21.2 20.7 20.3 19.7 19.2 19.1 19.2 19.5 20.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 157.4 158.2 158.9 159.6 160.3 161.6 162.9 164.2 165.6 166.8 167.9 169.2 170.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 7 6 7 7 7 6 6 5 6 6 7 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 6 9 8 7 9 21 26 22 29 33 25 20 22 27 34 36 37 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 688 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 15. 19. 22. 24. 26. 27. 28. 29. 30. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. -2. -9. -20. -32. -43. -51. -55. -58. -60. -64. -71. -74. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -14. -14. -15. -14. -12. -12. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -4. -5. -9. -18. -27. -36. -42. -48. -52. -54. -57. -59. -65. -70. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 21.2 157.4 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122021 LINDA 08/24/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.56 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -27.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.03 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 45.8 19.6 to 1.3 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.91 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 336.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.53 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.05 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 79.6 56.6 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.34 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122021 LINDA 08/24/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##