* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LINDA EP122021 08/24/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 23 21 21 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 23 21 21 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 21 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 47 43 45 45 43 36 37 40 43 47 52 55 50 48 41 35 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 6 4 2 2 9 7 3 2 2 0 -5 2 -2 -1 -2 -4 SHEAR DIR 238 237 239 243 251 251 251 249 240 237 231 242 245 247 249 255 257 SST (C) 27.1 27.1 27.2 27.4 27.6 27.5 27.6 27.7 27.9 27.9 27.9 28.1 28.2 28.5 28.4 28.2 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 135 134 135 137 139 138 139 140 142 141 142 144 146 149 147 146 145 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.2 -54.5 -54.7 -54.7 -54.8 -54.7 -54.7 -54.9 -55.1 -55.0 -55.3 -55.2 -55.3 -55.3 -55.5 -55.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.5 -0.7 -0.6 -0.7 -0.6 -0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 8 7 8 8 9 8 9 9 10 700-500 MB RH 21 20 20 21 21 24 26 32 35 42 47 51 52 58 60 63 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 3 3 2 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -8 -11 -20 -18 -14 -5 6 10 2 -9 -10 -16 -16 -17 -19 -19 200 MB DIV -33 -27 -32 -7 -9 -2 5 39 40 27 28 16 17 25 4 11 -19 700-850 TADV -8 -7 -5 -3 -9 -13 -15 -15 -15 -16 -15 -10 -11 -3 -6 -3 -4 LAND (KM) 83 121 125 167 225 364 514 665 805 926 1045 1198 1343 1504 1666 1840 2014 LAT (DEG N) 20.8 20.8 20.7 20.6 20.5 20.2 19.8 19.4 19.3 19.5 19.9 20.4 21.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 158.7 159.7 160.5 161.2 161.9 163.3 164.7 166.1 167.5 168.8 170.1 171.7 173.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 12 8 11 18 27 24 23 31 26 20 22 27 42 42 34 27 25 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 706 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 29. 30. 32. 33. 34. 36. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -7. -18. -31. -43. -52. -58. -61. -62. -65. -71. -73. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -8. -9. -11. -12. -14. -14. -15. -14. -12. -12. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -4. -5. -8. -14. -22. -29. -36. -43. -48. -50. -51. -52. -58. -60. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 20.8 158.7 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122021 LINDA 08/24/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.65 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -21.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.06 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 44.4 19.6 to 1.3 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.94 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 291.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.58 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.12 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 86.5 56.6 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.32 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122021 LINDA 08/24/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##