* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARTY EP132021 08/24/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 33 31 29 28 22 18 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 33 31 29 28 22 18 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 32 30 27 25 21 18 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 10 11 12 10 9 2 5 12 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 4 4 1 3 0 0 -1 -1 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 62 67 69 80 67 64 109 206 239 241 237 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.3 25.9 25.7 25.7 25.5 25.2 25.2 25.3 25.0 24.7 25.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 128 123 120 120 118 115 115 117 114 110 114 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -51.2 -51.2 -51.2 -51.4 -51.9 -52.2 -52.4 -52.6 -53.1 -53.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 63 61 57 58 53 52 47 43 39 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 13 12 12 10 9 7 6 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 47 52 56 43 36 29 43 28 36 28 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 4 3 0 1 0 -14 -25 -41 -30 -26 -33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 6 7 5 7 3 7 5 8 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 628 720 822 899 979 1125 1275 1491 1748 1999 2191 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.6 20.6 20.6 20.6 20.6 20.6 20.6 20.2 19.8 19.0 18.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 116.4 117.7 118.9 119.8 120.7 122.8 124.8 127.1 129.8 132.1 134.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 10 8 9 9 10 12 12 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 477 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 4.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 13. 11. 10. 9. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. -14. -14. -15. -17. -19. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -13. -13. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -9. -10. -11. -13. -13. -14. -13. -11. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -6. -7. -13. -17. -20. -23. -28. -32. -33. -32. -32. -29. -27. -25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 20.6 116.4 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132021 MARTY 08/24/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.43 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.18 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.6 19.6 to 1.3 0.49 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.83 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 169.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.71 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.70 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.9% 13.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 4.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132021 MARTY 08/24/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##