* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FOURTEEN EP142021 08/25/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 38 40 44 49 55 60 63 65 66 66 64 62 58 55 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 38 40 44 49 55 60 63 65 66 66 64 62 58 55 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 31 32 33 33 35 37 39 40 41 42 42 41 39 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 24 25 21 21 22 20 10 10 12 6 5 9 6 9 10 19 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -3 0 0 -3 0 2 4 1 6 0 1 0 0 0 4 SHEAR DIR 70 60 57 56 38 35 49 86 144 201 171 171 188 171 172 167 194 SST (C) 28.3 28.1 28.0 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.6 28.3 29.2 28.6 28.3 28.6 28.1 27.4 26.4 25.3 24.5 POT. INT. (KT) 146 144 143 146 147 147 150 147 157 151 147 149 143 136 126 113 104 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.5 -52.9 -53.2 -52.6 -52.4 -52.3 -51.9 -51.6 -51.6 -51.5 -51.4 -51.6 -51.5 -51.6 -51.4 -51.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 3 4 4 5 6 7 6 6 5 5 4 3 2 2 700-500 MB RH 88 89 89 87 85 83 80 75 72 71 67 57 53 51 47 42 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 14 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 55 57 61 64 79 68 83 73 92 104 78 50 33 36 18 25 30 200 MB DIV 161 175 151 159 139 100 104 97 141 51 28 31 -2 -2 3 15 -7 700-850 TADV -2 -5 -5 -1 -3 -2 -5 -6 0 0 5 4 3 6 4 6 4 LAND (KM) 503 509 520 517 514 509 455 392 292 299 212 151 201 185 190 229 212 LAT (DEG N) 11.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 99.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 8 9 9 9 9 9 10 11 9 6 5 6 6 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 11 10 10 14 19 15 15 12 27 21 11 16 8 3 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 564 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 25. 28. 30. 32. 33. 33. 33. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -3. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 8. 7. 5. 3. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 10. 14. 19. 25. 30. 33. 35. 36. 36. 34. 32. 28. 25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.6 99.1 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142021 FOURTEEN 08/25/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.69 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 157.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.99 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.5 19.6 to 1.3 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.62 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : -2.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.91 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.10 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.45 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 18.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0% Logistic: 0.4% 5.3% 1.2% 0.6% 0.3% 1.2% 11.4% 8.8% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.2% Consensus: 0.2% 7.9% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.4% 3.8% 8.7% DTOPS: 1.0% 4.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142021 FOURTEEN 08/25/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##