* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FOURTEEN EP142021 08/26/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 37 41 43 44 45 50 53 55 57 59 59 58 55 49 45 V (KT) LAND 30 34 37 41 43 44 45 50 53 55 57 59 59 58 55 49 45 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 33 33 33 32 32 34 36 37 39 41 41 39 35 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 20 21 27 24 21 8 6 12 7 6 11 14 12 21 26 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -1 0 -1 3 6 -2 2 -2 3 0 4 0 2 0 2 SHEAR DIR 70 68 56 37 36 36 58 169 242 245 229 213 191 183 177 206 228 SST (C) 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.4 28.7 29.0 28.3 28.6 28.3 27.7 27.1 25.6 24.7 23.7 POT. INT. (KT) 144 146 147 148 148 149 148 152 155 147 150 146 139 133 117 107 97 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.9 -53.2 -52.5 -51.9 -52.9 -52.0 -52.7 -52.0 -52.4 -51.8 -52.0 -51.4 -51.6 -51.2 -51.3 -50.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 4 5 4 6 5 8 5 7 5 6 3 4 2 3 700-500 MB RH 89 90 87 85 83 80 78 75 70 69 60 54 49 47 42 39 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 16 18 18 15 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 58 70 70 92 89 78 87 83 97 87 77 53 47 41 30 45 46 200 MB DIV 189 174 176 143 114 91 108 91 59 14 -10 5 5 16 4 18 -10 700-850 TADV -2 -6 -4 -6 -6 -6 -7 -1 -5 1 4 5 11 3 6 0 0 LAND (KM) 506 501 499 499 498 460 398 297 252 280 143 179 192 180 235 245 208 LAT (DEG N) 11.8 12.2 12.5 12.9 13.3 14.2 15.5 17.1 19.0 20.6 21.7 22.5 23.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 99.8 100.5 101.3 102.2 103.1 104.5 105.7 106.5 107.6 108.9 110.5 111.8 112.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 9 10 9 8 8 10 10 10 8 6 5 5 6 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 10 12 14 19 18 14 13 18 24 13 15 10 4 2 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 565 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 28. 30. 32. 33. 33. 32. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -4. -8. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 0. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 11. 13. 15. 15. 20. 23. 25. 27. 29. 29. 28. 25. 19. 15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.8 99.8 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142021 FOURTEEN 08/26/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.70 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 159.2 -33.0 to 159.5 1.00 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.7 19.6 to 1.3 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.74 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 1.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.90 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.11 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.57 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 20.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 18.3% Logistic: 0.6% 4.7% 1.1% 0.6% 0.3% 1.4% 7.5% 7.7% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% Consensus: 0.2% 8.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.5% 2.5% 8.9% DTOPS: 1.0% 9.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 3.0% 3.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142021 FOURTEEN 08/26/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##