* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORA EP142021 08/26/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 40 41 44 48 41 37 39 41 42 44 47 49 52 53 54 V (KT) LAND 35 38 40 41 44 48 41 37 39 41 42 44 45 34 31 29 28 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 38 40 41 41 37 34 33 34 35 37 37 30 29 28 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 19 20 19 11 5 13 7 8 4 7 10 8 15 14 16 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -5 -4 -2 -3 6 8 5 0 -2 -1 -5 -1 -2 -3 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 59 56 66 61 48 140 144 137 126 93 55 92 131 140 188 187 216 SST (C) 28.3 28.5 28.7 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.1 29.4 29.8 29.8 30.1 29.9 29.4 29.2 29.3 28.2 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 147 149 151 153 155 157 155 158 162 162 165 162 157 156 156 144 121 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.0 -52.4 -52.5 -52.2 -52.1 -51.7 -51.7 -51.7 -51.6 -51.9 -51.8 -52.1 -52.0 -52.2 -51.8 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 4 4 5 5 7 6 7 6 6 6 5 4 5 4 4 700-500 MB RH 83 83 79 79 80 77 78 79 76 70 67 65 63 56 50 45 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 22 21 21 22 20 10 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 74 77 60 61 67 67 85 99 82 64 40 29 1 17 16 49 24 200 MB DIV 163 129 140 114 135 115 134 94 39 38 -9 14 2 19 -3 23 14 700-850 TADV -1 -4 -1 -5 -5 -8 -6 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 430 410 390 353 305 170 69 25 147 189 38 2 0 -50 -28 -23 -23 LAT (DEG N) 13.1 13.6 14.1 14.7 15.3 16.9 18.6 20.0 21.1 22.2 23.1 24.0 24.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 101.1 101.8 102.5 102.9 103.3 104.0 104.9 105.7 106.9 108.0 109.1 110.0 110.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 7 8 9 8 8 8 7 6 6 5 7 6 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 14 16 18 19 19 19 17 22 33 26 22 19 15 14 17 8 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 455 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 21. 24. 27. 30. 32. 35. 37. 38. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. 0. -1. -11. -21. -24. -24. -24. -23. -21. -19. -17. -15. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 6. 9. 13. 6. 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 12. 14. 17. 18. 19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 13.1 101.1 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142021 NORA 08/26/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.69 5.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 136.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.88 5.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.7 19.6 to 1.3 0.11 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 1.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.37 1.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 23.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.88 -4.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.14 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.72 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 36% is 7.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.3% 19.5% 16.7% 15.6% 0.0% 18.8% 21.7% 35.9% Logistic: 0.2% 1.7% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 2.0% 12.6% 4.6% Bayesian: 0.1% 1.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.3% Consensus: 2.2% 7.4% 5.9% 5.3% 0.0% 6.9% 11.5% 14.6% DTOPS: 2.0% 10.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142021 NORA 08/26/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##