* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORA EP142021 08/27/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 44 46 49 46 40 38 38 40 40 43 44 46 47 46 47 V (KT) LAND 40 43 44 46 49 46 40 38 38 35 32 30 33 29 28 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 40 42 44 45 45 43 37 35 35 32 30 29 31 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 19 14 6 7 12 13 3 8 5 8 10 16 20 16 20 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -3 -1 -1 9 1 -2 -2 -1 0 -2 1 -1 2 3 0 SHEAR DIR 44 46 40 56 61 126 149 120 102 127 117 150 147 184 199 208 209 SST (C) 28.6 28.9 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.7 29.4 29.4 29.7 29.9 29.1 28.7 27.7 26.9 26.1 25.6 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 150 153 154 154 153 151 159 158 161 163 154 150 139 131 123 117 138 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.4 -52.6 -52.4 -51.9 -52.2 -51.3 -51.9 -51.3 -51.8 -51.6 -51.9 -51.7 -52.0 -51.7 -52.0 -51.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.8 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 4 4 6 7 6 8 6 8 5 7 4 5 3 5 3 6 700-500 MB RH 84 79 79 80 78 75 77 73 66 66 63 63 56 51 45 38 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 23 22 23 24 16 7 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 65 55 58 66 67 80 108 86 68 36 14 9 8 17 26 32 41 200 MB DIV 150 119 102 103 120 93 115 40 -2 4 -12 12 16 13 -8 19 4 700-850 TADV -6 -5 -5 -7 -8 -11 -2 1 1 0 2 0 3 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 407 383 353 301 264 162 96 204 123 -17 -9 -45 15 -16 -59 -16 -10 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.4 14.9 15.6 16.2 17.9 19.7 21.2 22.4 23.4 24.2 25.0 25.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 102.2 102.9 103.5 104.0 104.5 105.4 106.3 107.5 108.7 109.7 110.7 111.5 112.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 8 9 10 10 9 7 6 6 5 5 5 6 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 17 18 18 17 15 14 23 24 21 19 13 10 4 1 0 0 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 364 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 18. 21. 24. 26. 27. 28. 28. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -2. -4. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. -4. -14. -22. -27. -27. -27. -25. -23. -21. -19. -17. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 4. 6. 9. 6. -0. -2. -2. -0. 0. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 13.8 102.2 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142021 NORA 08/27/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.67 5.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 118.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.79 5.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.9 19.6 to 1.3 0.37 2.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 2.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.42 2.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 38.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.86 -4.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.14 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.65 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 24% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 28% is 6.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.8% 22.9% 19.9% 19.0% 11.0% 19.7% 24.2% 28.4% Logistic: 0.5% 6.8% 2.4% 1.1% 0.5% 4.2% 10.4% 3.5% Bayesian: 0.5% 3.7% 2.6% 0.4% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 5.2% Consensus: 2.9% 11.1% 8.3% 6.9% 3.8% 8.0% 11.6% 12.4% DTOPS: 2.0% 19.0% 9.0% 5.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142021 NORA 08/27/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##