* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORA EP142021 08/27/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 52 55 56 51 45 44 45 45 45 47 47 49 50 50 51 V (KT) LAND 45 48 52 55 56 51 45 44 45 37 34 30 29 28 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 45 49 52 55 55 50 44 42 43 36 33 30 32 28 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 14 9 5 3 14 10 3 7 6 9 10 20 19 19 20 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -1 0 5 10 -4 -1 -3 0 -2 0 -1 -2 2 -1 5 SHEAR DIR 43 33 45 70 101 148 181 60 83 75 109 131 137 181 181 206 197 SST (C) 28.8 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.6 29.0 29.6 29.7 30.0 29.5 29.1 28.5 27.5 27.4 28.1 27.9 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 152 154 153 151 150 155 161 161 164 158 153 148 137 136 143 140 133 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.7 -52.3 -51.9 -52.2 -51.9 -51.9 -51.7 -51.6 -51.9 -51.8 -52.0 -51.7 -51.9 -51.6 -51.6 -51.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 6 7 6 7 7 8 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 5 4 700-500 MB RH 81 80 81 79 77 74 76 73 67 64 60 59 52 48 43 35 30 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 22 24 24 23 15 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 43 49 58 58 60 76 93 68 46 14 13 -2 11 25 39 25 33 200 MB DIV 107 107 94 105 98 116 96 7 29 -10 0 15 35 -2 25 12 17 700-850 TADV -6 -5 -6 -4 -8 -4 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 -1 0 4 LAND (KM) 406 362 320 273 237 135 139 190 18 -22 -14 -30 -3 -61 -15 -6 -17 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.9 15.5 16.3 17.0 18.8 20.7 22.0 23.1 24.0 24.6 25.4 26.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 103.0 103.7 104.3 104.8 105.2 106.1 107.0 108.2 109.4 110.3 111.0 111.8 112.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 10 9 8 7 5 5 6 6 5 5 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 17 18 16 14 13 16 29 23 20 16 13 8 3 3 7 7 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 399 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 13. 16. 19. 20. 22. 23. 24. 25. 25. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. 0. -2. -5. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 2. 2. -4. -15. -21. -23. -24. -24. -23. -22. -20. -18. -17. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 11. 6. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 14.2 103.0 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142021 NORA 08/27/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.61 5.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 102.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.70 5.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.9 19.6 to 1.3 0.53 3.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 3.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.46 2.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 50.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.85 -4.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.12 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.67 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 2.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 37% is 6.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 25% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.8% 28.4% 22.8% 22.1% 12.9% 23.1% 37.0% 24.9% Logistic: 2.1% 20.6% 9.4% 5.2% 1.6% 8.6% 11.9% 3.2% Bayesian: 2.3% 11.7% 7.9% 2.3% 0.5% 1.4% 1.2% 3.0% Consensus: 5.1% 20.3% 13.4% 9.9% 5.0% 11.0% 16.7% 10.4% DTOPS: 8.0% 22.0% 12.0% 8.0% 6.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142021 NORA 08/27/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##