* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORA EP142021 08/27/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 47 48 43 38 37 36 38 40 41 44 46 50 53 56 57 V (KT) LAND 45 46 47 48 43 38 37 36 38 40 41 44 46 50 53 45 35 V (KT) LGEM 45 47 48 47 45 39 36 36 37 38 38 39 39 39 39 35 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 9 6 6 14 13 3 6 4 8 6 13 20 17 19 20 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -2 2 5 6 -2 -4 -2 0 -3 3 -3 4 -1 2 0 SHEAR DIR 37 26 55 110 115 150 138 93 84 91 137 138 172 183 194 197 217 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 28.7 28.6 28.6 29.5 30.2 30.6 30.7 30.7 30.6 30.8 30.9 30.8 30.8 30.2 30.1 POT. INT. (KT) 155 154 151 150 150 160 167 170 170 169 169 170 169 167 168 166 166 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.1 -51.7 -51.9 -52.2 -51.2 -51.8 -51.1 -51.5 -51.4 -51.6 -51.5 -51.8 -51.6 -51.6 -51.2 -51.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.9 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 6 6 6 8 7 9 5 7 4 6 4 6 5 7 4 700-500 MB RH 81 81 81 78 76 75 73 67 68 65 66 62 57 51 45 39 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 23 24 23 17 8 5 3 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 47 53 56 60 67 95 89 56 29 19 11 5 24 25 33 31 23 200 MB DIV 101 117 133 110 125 128 55 4 -10 -4 -1 12 10 29 21 6 32 700-850 TADV -4 -7 -4 -5 -10 -4 1 0 2 0 0 1 1 0 0 3 9 LAND (KM) 336 308 286 246 194 110 188 72 40 46 6 24 59 44 44 -14 -44 LAT (DEG N) 15.2 15.8 16.4 17.2 17.9 20.1 21.9 23.2 24.1 25.0 25.8 26.9 28.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 104.0 104.6 105.2 105.6 106.0 106.7 107.6 108.7 109.6 110.3 111.0 111.6 112.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 8 8 10 11 9 7 6 5 6 6 5 1 2 7 9 HEAT CONTENT 17 16 13 12 13 26 32 26 25 26 26 33 31 31 31 27 43 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 11 CX,CY: -7/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 396 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 13. 17. 20. 22. 25. 27. 30. 33. 35. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 3. 1. -2. -5. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. -4. -10. -17. -23. -26. -26. -26. -25. -22. -20. -18. -17. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. -2. -7. -8. -9. -7. -5. -4. -1. 1. 5. 8. 11. 12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 15.2 104.0 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142021 NORA 08/27/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.61 4.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 117.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.78 5.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.0 19.6 to 1.3 0.53 3.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 3.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.20 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 56.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.84 -4.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.11 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.54 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 31% is 5.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 23% is 5.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.2% 21.4% 20.3% 19.8% 0.0% 20.1% 30.7% 23.5% Logistic: 0.4% 2.5% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% 1.2% 4.3% 1.2% Bayesian: 1.2% 1.0% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.1% Consensus: 3.6% 8.3% 7.5% 6.8% 0.0% 7.1% 11.7% 8.9% DTOPS: 3.0% 4.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142021 NORA 08/27/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##