* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORA EP142021 08/27/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 59 61 60 57 51 49 48 49 49 51 52 55 56 58 60 64 V (KT) LAND 55 59 61 60 57 51 49 48 49 49 51 52 55 38 31 28 27 V (KT) LGEM 55 58 60 59 56 50 48 48 49 50 49 49 49 35 30 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 8 8 12 14 8 6 6 4 5 8 15 16 22 21 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 2 7 10 -1 -2 -4 0 -3 0 1 1 0 -3 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 29 43 90 108 124 127 101 79 43 85 125 156 188 185 216 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.8 28.7 28.5 28.5 28.7 29.4 30.1 30.6 30.7 30.7 30.7 31.1 30.8 29.1 29.4 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 152 151 149 149 152 159 165 170 170 169 170 170 170 154 157 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.0 -52.1 -52.4 -51.9 -51.8 -51.8 -51.6 -51.6 -51.8 -51.7 -51.6 -51.8 -51.6 -51.8 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 7 7 8 6 7 5 6 5 6 5 7 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 82 83 80 78 76 76 73 68 67 64 64 58 56 53 44 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 21 21 17 14 5 5 4 5 4 5 3 3 1 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 55 48 48 52 67 89 75 57 23 30 8 25 24 50 19 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 96 125 94 113 129 84 20 26 -11 17 4 40 4 31 9 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 -3 -9 -9 -6 -1 1 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 371 336 314 234 169 136 210 72 47 45 16 43 7 -65 -85 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.2 15.9 16.5 17.5 18.4 20.3 21.9 23.2 24.2 25.1 26.1 27.2 28.6 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 104.7 105.2 105.7 106.0 106.2 107.0 107.9 108.7 109.6 110.4 111.1 111.6 111.8 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 9 10 10 9 8 7 6 5 6 6 7 6 6 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 15 13 12 12 14 26 31 26 26 25 29 36 31 18 31 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 403 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 12. 13. 15. 17. 20. 22. 23. 24. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 3. 1. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -3. -5. -12. -16. -21. -23. -24. -23. -23. -22. -21. -19. -18. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 6. 5. 2. -4. -6. -7. -6. -6. -4. -3. -0. 1. 3. 5. 9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 15.2 104.7 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142021 NORA 08/27/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.51 5.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 6.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 111.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.75 7.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.5 19.6 to 1.3 0.50 4.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 7.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.64 4.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 59.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.84 -6.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.10 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.56 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 48% is 3.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 33% is 5.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 27% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.9% 47.6% 32.4% 24.5% 14.4% 33.4% 27.0% 15.7% Logistic: 7.6% 23.8% 12.1% 7.4% 1.5% 9.6% 6.5% 1.8% Bayesian: 5.8% 11.2% 10.9% 4.8% 0.7% 3.0% 1.8% 1.0% Consensus: 9.4% 27.5% 18.5% 12.2% 5.5% 15.4% 11.8% 6.2% DTOPS: 14.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142021 NORA 08/27/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##