* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORA EP142021 08/28/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 58 59 57 52 49 47 47 49 52 50 51 54 57 62 65 69 V (KT) LAND 55 58 59 57 52 49 47 47 49 52 50 51 38 31 28 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 55 57 56 54 51 46 46 47 49 50 49 46 36 29 28 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 6 11 14 13 7 7 8 6 5 8 8 6 11 17 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 3 9 11 10 -2 -3 -3 0 -2 5 3 10 2 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 28 103 102 120 137 146 65 66 68 33 91 162 208 224 212 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.7 29.1 29.9 30.3 30.7 31.2 31.3 31.2 31.4 28.7 28.7 29.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 153 152 150 152 156 164 167 170 170 170 169 170 151 151 159 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.0 -52.3 -51.8 -51.3 -52.0 -51.3 -51.6 -51.1 -51.1 -50.6 -50.8 -50.4 -50.4 -50.3 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 1.0 1.0 0.5 0.3 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 7 9 7 9 6 9 4 7 4 6 5 9 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 83 80 79 77 78 75 70 69 66 65 62 58 55 50 45 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 25 23 21 18 13 8 7 8 9 11 9 6 4 1 3 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 44 45 51 66 87 87 83 59 42 28 15 26 36 28 35 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 132 103 97 112 132 70 14 12 2 2 -4 2 18 11 14 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -8 -14 -9 -4 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 315 261 206 138 106 161 150 75 91 80 58 45 -73 -150 -238 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.7 17.5 18.5 19.4 21.3 22.6 23.5 24.6 25.6 26.5 27.7 29.4 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 104.9 105.2 105.5 105.9 106.2 107.1 107.8 108.7 109.4 110.2 110.9 111.4 111.5 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 10 10 10 9 7 6 6 6 6 8 8 8 8 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 14 13 13 14 19 32 30 27 30 33 36 38 13 20 11 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 442 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 14. 16. 18. 20. 21. 23. 24. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -4. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -4. -9. -13. -17. -21. -21. -20. -22. -24. -25. -25. -21. -20. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 4. 2. -3. -6. -8. -8. -6. -3. -5. -4. -1. 2. 7. 10. 14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 15.9 104.9 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142021 NORA 08/28/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.52 6.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 5.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 115.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.77 8.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.5 19.6 to 1.3 0.50 5.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 8.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.84 6.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 70.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.83 -7.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.11 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.35 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 58% is 4.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 38% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 40% is 6.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 31% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 17.2% 58.4% 37.7% 24.9% 14.9% 40.1% 31.1% 15.2% Logistic: 9.3% 26.4% 13.6% 8.4% 0.9% 15.1% 4.5% 1.1% Bayesian: 2.0% 6.0% 5.8% 2.7% 0.1% 1.8% 2.4% 1.3% Consensus: 9.5% 30.3% 19.0% 12.0% 5.3% 19.0% 12.6% 5.9% DTOPS: 12.0% 4.0% 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142021 NORA 08/28/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##