* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEN AL102021 08/28/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 31 31 31 31 32 32 33 32 36 41 45 47 47 49 50 V (KT) LAND 30 31 31 31 31 31 32 32 33 32 36 41 45 47 47 49 50 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 32 31 30 29 28 27 27 28 31 36 42 45 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 19 15 17 20 22 24 27 22 13 10 4 4 17 17 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 5 1 -1 -1 -4 0 -4 -4 -5 -6 -5 -2 -3 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 272 288 295 303 307 327 303 308 277 276 285 117 104 109 140 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.4 27.3 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.3 27.3 27.4 27.6 27.7 27.5 27.2 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 130 129 128 128 126 127 128 128 126 126 128 132 133 130 126 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 122 122 120 119 117 117 116 115 113 111 114 118 118 111 106 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.7 -53.6 -53.7 -53.9 -54.1 -54.3 -54.6 -55.1 -55.3 -55.6 -55.8 -55.7 -55.6 -55.6 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 8 8 8 9 8 8 7 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 53 54 54 51 48 48 50 49 44 43 42 40 39 39 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 10 9 9 7 6 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 19 0 -11 -14 -17 -32 -31 -27 -9 -16 -19 -56 -81 -116 -133 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -31 -27 -6 -9 2 12 -5 20 16 -1 -1 5 -15 -13 -32 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 1 2 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 5 1 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1001 1061 1124 1198 1273 1406 1524 1620 1717 1744 1772 1842 1978 1782 1642 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 49.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 8 12 12 9 8 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 28 24 21 17 16 20 32 22 14 15 15 20 22 11 5 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 633 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 34.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 16. 19. 22. 23. 24. 25. 24. 24. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -3. -5. -8. -8. -7. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -13. -16. -17. -18. -19. -19. -18. -18. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 6. 11. 15. 17. 17. 19. 20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.7 49.8 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102021 TEN 08/28/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.45 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.14 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 34.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.06 0.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 191.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.74 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.12 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.0 28.3 to 146.3 0.52 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -14.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.07 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 40.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.59 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.6% 3.4% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% 4.3% 4.5% 4.5% Logistic: 0.9% 1.1% 0.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.8% 0.7% 0.7% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.0% 1.5% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102021 TEN 08/28/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102021 TEN 08/28/2021 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 31 31 31 31 32 32 33 32 36 41 45 47 47 49 50 18HR AGO 30 29 29 29 29 29 30 30 31 30 34 39 43 45 45 47 48 12HR AGO 30 27 26 26 26 26 27 27 28 27 31 36 40 42 42 44 45 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 20 20 21 21 22 21 25 30 34 36 36 38 39 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT