* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORA EP142021 08/28/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 68 67 61 57 57 53 52 50 52 49 51 53 55 59 62 65 V (KT) LAND 65 68 67 61 57 57 53 52 50 52 49 42 32 28 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 65 67 66 62 58 55 55 56 56 55 53 44 33 28 27 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 2 10 12 13 11 4 8 6 9 7 17 14 19 20 20 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 7 12 12 1 0 -4 1 -2 2 0 2 1 -5 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 96 123 124 138 147 91 68 54 89 120 136 186 183 228 221 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.9 28.7 28.8 29.2 29.8 30.3 30.4 31.0 31.3 31.3 31.4 30.0 28.1 29.1 29.8 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 153 151 153 157 163 167 167 169 170 170 170 164 144 154 162 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.3 -52.0 -51.5 -51.9 -51.9 -51.6 -51.7 -51.7 -51.8 -51.6 -51.9 -51.5 -51.8 -52.0 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 7 8 7 8 6 7 6 7 6 7 7 8 7 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 80 79 78 79 76 75 70 67 65 64 61 57 53 48 43 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 22 18 10 6 6 5 6 6 6 4 3 3 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 38 46 54 78 83 80 73 37 39 14 31 16 43 18 45 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 82 83 94 123 94 40 14 -13 19 8 29 21 32 14 12 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -7 -11 -9 -2 0 0 -2 0 0 0 0 -2 -1 0 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 247 192 124 78 66 135 135 105 99 71 52 -29 -155 -192 -274 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.7 17.6 18.4 19.5 20.6 22.2 23.0 24.0 24.8 25.8 27.1 28.6 30.2 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 105.0 105.3 105.6 106.0 106.3 107.2 108.0 108.6 109.4 110.3 111.0 111.3 111.1 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 10 11 10 7 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 7 7 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 14 13 14 19 30 32 28 29 32 33 40 23 5 24 5 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 8 CX,CY: -3/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 495 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. -2. -4. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -4. -3. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -8. -12. -12. -17. -20. -23. -22. -25. -24. -23. -22. -19. -17. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 2. -4. -8. -8. -12. -13. -15. -13. -16. -14. -12. -10. -6. -3. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 16.7 105.0 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142021 NORA 08/28/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.46 4.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 5.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 95.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.67 5.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.5 19.6 to 1.3 0.55 4.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 6.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.61 3.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 96.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.80 -5.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.15 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.28 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 34% is 2.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 19.5% 34.1% 27.2% 23.8% 14.3% 21.0% 15.2% 11.0% Logistic: 7.4% 15.1% 8.3% 4.4% 0.3% 7.1% 2.6% 0.7% Bayesian: 6.1% 15.5% 13.8% 6.6% 0.3% 3.4% 2.3% 0.6% Consensus: 11.0% 21.6% 16.4% 11.6% 5.0% 10.5% 6.7% 4.1% DTOPS: 8.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142021 NORA 08/28/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##