* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORA EP142021 08/28/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 73 71 67 66 64 60 55 54 53 51 53 53 57 61 64 68 V (KT) LAND 70 73 71 67 66 64 60 55 54 53 51 47 35 29 28 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 70 72 70 66 64 63 63 63 61 59 56 53 35 29 27 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 13 13 13 10 7 6 6 7 13 11 11 15 7 3 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 12 10 0 -3 0 -5 0 -1 2 -1 5 -4 -1 1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 130 130 149 139 153 69 105 51 100 116 157 149 193 202 175 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.6 28.8 29.4 30.1 30.5 30.6 31.0 31.3 31.2 31.3 31.4 30.7 28.2 28.1 28.2 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 151 153 159 166 170 170 170 169 169 169 169 170 144 141 141 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.1 -51.6 -52.0 -52.4 -51.6 -51.9 -51.6 -51.8 -51.4 -51.9 -51.5 -51.8 -51.7 -52.1 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 7 9 7 7 9 6 9 5 8 5 7 6 8 5 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 79 78 78 77 76 73 70 67 67 64 63 57 53 46 45 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 18 11 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 5 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 42 52 76 85 78 79 54 44 23 12 14 20 25 27 28 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 71 86 84 88 61 12 0 -11 7 11 10 18 32 14 14 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -11 -8 -1 -3 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 0 1 8 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 167 84 38 61 102 98 98 99 73 78 56 -11 -102 -136 -120 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.8 18.8 19.8 20.8 21.7 22.9 23.7 24.6 25.2 26.0 26.9 28.1 29.3 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 105.3 105.5 105.7 106.2 106.6 107.4 108.2 109.0 109.7 110.3 110.8 111.0 111.0 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 11 10 8 6 6 5 4 5 5 6 5 2 1 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 12 14 20 30 34 29 29 32 31 35 42 31 10 6 4 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 10 CX,CY: -1/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 459 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 9. 9. 10. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -5. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -5. -10. -11. -11. -14. -18. -19. -20. -22. -22. -23. -20. -18. -17. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 1. -3. -4. -6. -10. -15. -16. -17. -19. -17. -17. -13. -9. -6. -2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 17.8 105.3 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142021 NORA 08/28/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.45 4.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 6.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 78.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.58 5.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.8 19.6 to 1.3 0.43 3.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.83 5.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.87 5.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 86.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.81 -5.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.19 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.32 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 30% is 4.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 45% is 3.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 30.0% 44.6% 28.4% 23.7% 14.5% 20.4% 14.8% 10.7% Logistic: 20.3% 33.8% 21.2% 12.5% 2.5% 12.0% 2.1% 0.6% Bayesian: 9.7% 29.2% 21.5% 12.2% 1.8% 15.7% 3.1% 0.2% Consensus: 20.0% 35.9% 23.7% 16.1% 6.3% 16.0% 6.7% 3.8% DTOPS: 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142021 NORA 08/28/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##