* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORA EP142021 08/28/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 76 74 74 74 74 69 64 60 57 55 55 57 59 61 63 67 V (KT) LAND 75 76 73 73 73 73 68 63 59 56 43 34 29 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 75 76 73 71 71 72 72 72 70 67 51 37 30 28 27 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 12 11 5 0 7 7 8 8 13 5 12 2 13 8 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 13 8 0 -4 1 -3 -1 -5 -1 -3 5 2 3 -3 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 152 156 146 140 29 42 26 55 50 90 72 131 140 156 154 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.9 29.7 30.6 31.0 31.0 31.0 31.3 31.3 31.2 31.2 30.7 28.6 28.0 28.3 28.7 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 154 163 171 171 170 169 169 169 169 169 170 149 142 144 147 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -51.6 -52.1 -52.4 -52.0 -51.7 -51.5 -51.4 -51.2 -51.1 -51.0 -50.7 -50.9 -51.1 -51.4 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 8 7 9 7 9 7 8 6 7 6 7 7 7 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 77 77 74 74 74 69 68 64 64 60 58 51 45 39 40 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 10 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 53 70 77 69 70 59 33 40 18 18 14 41 21 44 15 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 89 94 64 49 42 18 -18 15 9 12 -4 36 20 29 10 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -7 0 -2 -2 0 -1 0 -1 0 -1 -1 -2 0 2 2 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 47 0 48 62 53 45 52 66 15 41 -20 -88 -166 -186 -149 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.1 20.2 21.3 22.1 22.8 23.6 24.3 25.0 25.7 26.5 27.6 28.8 30.0 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 105.3 105.6 105.8 106.3 106.7 107.4 108.2 109.1 109.5 110.0 110.4 110.7 110.8 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 9 7 5 5 4 4 5 6 6 5 2 2 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 15 23 33 37 33 30 32 33 33 37 33 11 8 12 16 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 11 CX,CY: 0/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 465 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -11. -10. -9. -8. -7. -6. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -2. -7. -9. -9. -9. -12. -15. -17. -18. -17. -17. -15. -14. -12. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. RI POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -6. -11. -15. -18. -20. -20. -17. -16. -14. -12. -8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 19.1 105.3 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142021 NORA 08/28/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.46 4.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 5.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.52 4.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.8 19.6 to 1.3 0.64 5.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 5.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.82 5.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 86.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.81 -5.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 28.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.25 1.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.38 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 44% is 3.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 22.9% 43.8% 29.8% 24.1% 15.4% 20.2% 14.2% 10.1% Logistic: 12.1% 28.1% 18.7% 8.8% 2.3% 8.9% 1.3% 0.4% Bayesian: 6.8% 49.1% 29.8% 18.1% 3.2% 8.3% 0.1% 0.2% Consensus: 13.9% 40.3% 26.1% 17.0% 7.0% 12.5% 5.2% 3.6% DTOPS: 3.0% 0.0% 1.0% 4.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142021 NORA 08/28/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##