* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ELEVEN AL112021 08/29/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 38 41 45 49 51 48 49 47 43 39 34 26 23 21 20 V (KT) LAND 30 33 38 41 45 49 51 48 49 47 43 39 34 26 23 21 20 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 35 38 39 39 35 32 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 16 21 26 37 56 55 32 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 1 4 0 -8 -11 0 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 275 263 250 221 216 209 209 190 186 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.4 27.1 27.1 27.1 26.9 23.7 21.4 17.1 12.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 129 127 128 129 127 100 88 77 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 110 111 113 115 113 89 79 72 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.2 -55.7 -55.8 -55.4 -55.2 -54.6 -54.2 -53.9 -53.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.5 -0.3 -0.5 -0.5 -0.7 -0.5 1.1 2.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 6 4 4 3 2 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 39 42 41 41 41 46 48 45 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 14 14 16 15 14 14 16 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 5 17 38 53 55 102 123 123 108 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 19 23 49 67 63 35 50 48 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -1 9 -2 4 -15 -10 -20 -26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1577 1496 1428 1375 1354 1361 1360 1239 1143 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 32.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 50.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 15 18 21 21 21 21 25 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 7 5 7 4 2 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 80/ 7 CX,CY: 7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 615 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 11. 10. 10. 9. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 1. -8. -14. -21. -28. -34. -41. -49. -54. -57. -57. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 11. 15. 19. 21. 18. 19. 17. 13. 9. 4. -4. -7. -9. -10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 32.7 50.1 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112021 ELEVEN 08/29/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 1.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.26 0.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.03 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.31 0.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 199.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.73 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.60 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.7 28.3 to 146.3 0.46 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.34 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 61.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.38 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.3% 5.3% 4.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.4% 3.6% 2.7% 0.8% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 3.0% 2.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 7.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112021 ELEVEN 08/29/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112021 ELEVEN 08/29/2021 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 38 41 45 49 51 48 49 47 43 39 34 26 23 21 20 18HR AGO 30 29 34 37 41 45 47 44 45 43 39 35 30 22 19 17 16 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 33 37 39 36 37 35 31 27 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 24 28 30 27 28 26 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT