* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORA EP142021 08/29/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 65 65 66 67 69 67 64 61 59 56 56 59 64 68 71 76 V (KT) LAND 65 65 65 66 67 69 67 64 61 44 34 29 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 65 64 63 62 63 63 64 62 58 43 33 29 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 10 9 3 3 4 6 6 7 3 9 10 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 0 -2 1 0 -5 0 -2 3 -1 3 -6 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 173 176 177 204 17 57 55 87 96 137 131 188 151 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.0 31.0 30.9 30.9 30.9 31.1 31.2 31.1 30.9 30.3 29.2 28.1 28.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 166 172 170 169 169 169 169 169 169 166 154 143 142 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.9 -52.3 -52.1 -51.7 -51.8 -51.7 -52.1 -51.6 -52.0 -51.6 -51.9 -51.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 8 7 9 9 7 10 6 9 5 8 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 75 74 74 74 72 70 65 64 60 57 54 49 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 6 5 5 4 4 4 5 4 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 61 74 66 65 62 30 28 23 11 7 21 24 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 79 68 53 54 43 0 -10 8 13 2 14 20 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -1 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 -2 -2 -2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 12 25 15 15 15 23 39 21 22 -40 -45 -131 -202 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.7 21.8 22.8 23.2 23.6 24.2 24.9 25.5 26.5 27.5 28.4 29.3 30.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 105.5 105.9 106.2 106.6 107.0 107.7 108.5 109.2 109.7 110.1 110.5 110.6 110.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 8 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 27 36 33 32 31 31 33 33 33 29 16 10 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 15 CX,CY: 0/ 15 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 312 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 18.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 15. 16. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -4. -6. -8. -8. -9. -8. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. 1. 2. 4. 2. -1. -4. -6. -9. -9. -6. -1. 3. 6. 11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 20.7 105.5 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142021 NORA 08/29/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.59 5.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.48 4.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.0 19.6 to 1.3 0.63 5.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 5.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.75 4.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 67.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.83 -5.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 31.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.28 1.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.28 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 39% is 3.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.4% 38.7% 27.1% 23.5% 14.8% 20.7% 14.9% 11.5% Logistic: 3.5% 14.6% 9.4% 3.1% 1.5% 4.9% 0.7% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.1% 5.2% 2.3% 0.9% 0.1% 0.9% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 6.0% 19.5% 12.9% 9.2% 5.5% 8.8% 5.2% 3.9% DTOPS: 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142021 NORA 08/29/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##