* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORA EP142021 08/29/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 66 68 70 71 78 78 75 73 72 68 68 68 72 74 77 82 V (KT) LAND 65 66 68 70 71 78 78 74 57 40 32 28 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 65 66 67 68 69 73 77 75 59 41 32 28 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 7 4 1 2 6 7 2 8 5 9 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 0 0 -4 -3 -5 2 -2 2 1 0 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 185 185 202 217 356 359 34 79 150 211 170 193 171 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.9 30.9 30.7 30.8 30.9 31.1 31.3 31.1 30.7 29.3 28.4 28.0 28.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 172 170 170 170 169 169 169 170 170 155 145 142 147 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.1 -52.0 -51.6 -51.7 -51.7 -51.8 -51.9 -51.8 -51.9 -51.8 -52.0 -52.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 9 10 7 8 7 8 7 7 7 8 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 73 74 72 70 68 67 64 63 59 58 53 50 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 6 5 5 4 3 4 4 4 4 4 3 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 71 62 66 54 48 18 33 8 25 10 42 17 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 64 57 65 43 30 -25 4 6 39 -2 41 14 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 -1 -3 -2 0 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 15 19 0 4 8 18 42 46 -27 -44 -102 -153 -187 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.1 22.8 23.4 23.8 24.2 24.8 25.2 26.3 27.5 28.4 29.0 29.8 30.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 105.8 106.2 106.6 107.1 107.5 108.2 109.0 109.8 110.3 110.6 110.7 110.8 111.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 7 6 6 5 4 5 6 6 4 4 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 33 30 30 30 31 33 35 33 18 10 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 14 CX,CY: -1/ 14 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 384 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 24.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 10. 11. 13. 14. 15. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 7. 8. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -3. -3. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 13. 13. 10. 8. 7. 3. 3. 3. 7. 9. 12. 17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 22.1 105.8 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142021 NORA 08/29/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.59 5.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.44 3.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.5 19.6 to 1.3 0.77 6.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 6.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.57 3.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 109.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.78 -5.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 31.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.28 1.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.21 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 2.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.1% 30.9% 27.2% 23.9% 14.9% 20.0% 14.4% 11.4% Logistic: 1.8% 7.1% 5.4% 1.7% 1.1% 2.3% 1.1% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.1% 3.4% 1.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.4% 13.8% 11.4% 8.6% 5.4% 7.4% 5.2% 3.9% DTOPS: 7.0% 3.0% 3.0% 4.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142021 NORA 08/29/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##