* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEN AL102021 08/29/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 31 31 33 34 39 44 48 54 56 59 63 65 65 63 V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 31 31 33 34 39 44 48 54 56 59 63 65 65 63 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 29 29 28 28 28 29 32 37 44 51 56 61 65 65 63 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 28 21 19 26 29 22 19 5 6 4 5 3 4 2 10 33 50 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -3 0 0 0 -2 -2 -1 -3 -2 -3 -1 -1 -1 -2 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 322 321 300 290 300 282 280 231 219 237 352 355 358 308 236 242 224 SST (C) 27.4 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.4 27.5 27.6 28.3 28.7 28.4 27.8 27.5 27.3 27.1 26.5 24.7 POT. INT. (KT) 129 129 129 129 129 128 129 131 140 146 142 133 129 127 126 122 106 ADJ. POT. INT. 120 118 118 117 117 113 113 115 123 127 120 111 108 105 106 105 94 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.0 -54.1 -54.4 -54.6 -55.0 -55.3 -55.4 -55.4 -55.1 -55.1 -54.8 -54.7 -54.4 -53.9 -52.5 -51.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.0 0.3 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 8 9 6 2 1 700-500 MB RH 48 47 49 51 52 56 53 47 47 46 47 48 48 48 50 51 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 10 10 9 9 9 10 11 12 13 13 14 16 17 19 21 850 MB ENV VOR -9 -11 3 2 2 5 1 0 -27 -44 -73 -100 -111 -91 -41 16 39 200 MB DIV 23 17 22 5 9 27 13 23 -1 -2 -10 -7 21 29 32 35 22 700-850 TADV 1 1 0 3 3 2 5 1 -2 0 3 7 11 -1 1 -21 -36 LAND (KM) 1436 1485 1537 1595 1656 1761 1817 1852 1888 1929 1797 1629 1475 1310 1143 999 1023 LAT (DEG N) 18.4 19.2 19.9 20.7 21.4 22.9 24.1 25.5 27.2 28.9 30.6 32.1 33.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 50.2 50.2 50.2 50.1 50.1 49.5 49.3 49.5 50.0 50.7 51.1 51.4 51.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 7 8 8 8 7 6 8 9 9 8 7 8 8 11 18 21 HEAT CONTENT 27 37 35 20 16 17 16 18 30 34 24 14 6 4 6 3 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 11 CX,CY: -1/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 770 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 16. 20. 22. 24. 24. 25. 24. 23. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. -1. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. 1. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 9. 14. 18. 24. 26. 29. 33. 35. 35. 33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 18.4 50.2 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102021 TEN 08/29/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.19 0.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.18 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.53 0.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 205.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.73 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.15 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.9 28.3 to 146.3 0.50 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.21 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 70.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.30 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.2% 7.6% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 4.9% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.0% 2.7% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 1.7% 0.1% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102021 TEN 08/29/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102021 TEN 08/29/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 30 31 31 31 33 34 39 44 48 54 56 59 63 65 65 63 18HR AGO 30 29 30 30 30 32 33 38 43 47 53 55 58 62 64 64 62 12HR AGO 30 27 26 26 26 28 29 34 39 43 49 51 54 58 60 60 58 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 20 22 23 28 33 37 43 45 48 52 54 54 52 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT