* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORA EP142021 08/29/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 68 70 73 76 80 81 76 73 73 70 72 74 78 81 83 87 V (KT) LAND 65 68 52 45 46 51 51 45 37 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 65 66 52 45 40 50 55 52 45 35 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 6 2 0 2 5 8 6 3 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 -1 -2 -4 -5 -2 0 0 2 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 178 206 172 315 347 10 25 93 161 161 202 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.4 30.3 30.3 30.4 30.7 31.5 31.6 31.7 31.9 29.7 28.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 169 166 166 166 169 169 169 170 170 161 144 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.9 -51.5 -51.7 -51.8 -51.7 -51.9 -51.5 -51.7 -51.4 -51.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 9 10 8 7 10 6 9 6 8 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 73 70 69 68 68 63 62 57 56 53 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 6 5 4 3 3 3 5 3 2 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 60 65 61 49 31 19 29 11 15 20 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 51 59 38 22 -22 -15 4 0 16 21 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -1 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 -1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 8 0 -7 -3 0 23 23 33 -7 -56 -166 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.8 23.3 23.7 24.0 24.2 24.7 25.3 26.3 27.2 28.5 30.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 106.1 106.5 106.8 107.1 107.4 108.2 108.8 109.6 110.2 110.6 110.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 4 4 4 4 5 6 6 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 30 27 26 26 28 33 34 37 42 19 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 10 CX,CY: -2/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 459 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 24.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 9. 9. 9. 11. 13. 15. 17. 18. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 8. 8. 9. 8. 8. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -3. -5. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 11. 15. 16. 11. 8. 8. 5. 7. 9. 13. 16. 18. 22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 22.8 106.1 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142021 NORA 08/29/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.57 6.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 4.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.33 3.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.4 19.6 to 1.3 0.88 8.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 7.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.76 5.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 135.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.75 -5.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.24 1.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.47 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 43% is 3.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 34% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 23.4% 43.3% 33.6% 25.1% 22.1% 20.6% 15.3% 12.1% Logistic: 6.6% 22.3% 16.5% 6.3% 4.7% 3.0% 0.6% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.3% 3.2% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 10.1% 22.9% 17.0% 10.5% 9.0% 7.9% 5.3% 4.1% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142021 NORA 08/29/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##