* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORA EP142021 08/29/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 54 54 56 58 62 66 67 69 68 65 67 69 72 74 75 78 V (KT) LAND 55 54 54 56 58 51 55 49 37 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 55 53 52 52 53 43 51 42 36 30 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 5 2 5 6 2 1 6 7 15 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -2 -5 -5 -2 -1 2 -2 3 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 198 177 232 290 335 356 305 144 229 199 216 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.6 30.9 31.0 31.1 31.3 31.7 32.1 31.9 29.7 28.8 29.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 171 169 169 168 169 169 169 169 160 151 160 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.1 -51.4 -51.5 -51.3 -51.3 -51.3 -51.2 -51.4 -51.3 -51.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 8 7 8 7 7 6 7 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 67 65 63 63 63 60 58 55 54 51 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 6 5 3 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 62 56 48 27 12 25 6 20 11 47 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 38 22 17 -26 -25 -5 0 10 5 27 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 2 0 0 0 -1 -3 0 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 0 0 0 13 13 6 30 0 -58 -84 -64 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.1 24.5 24.8 25.1 25.3 26.0 26.7 27.7 28.7 29.7 30.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 107.3 107.7 108.0 108.3 108.6 109.4 110.1 110.6 111.0 111.6 112.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 5 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 27 29 29 31 32 36 43 40 18 12 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 13 CX,CY: -5/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 414 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 14.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 11. 14. 15. 16. 18. 21. 23. 25. 26. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 8. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. -1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. 1. 3. 7. 11. 12. 14. 13. 10. 12. 14. 17. 19. 20. 23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 24.1 107.3 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142021 NORA 08/29/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.68 5.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.20 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.9 19.6 to 1.3 0.80 5.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 5.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.65 3.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 139.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.75 -4.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.26 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 56.6 to 0.0 0.97 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.38 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.3% 24.6% 21.7% 20.8% 13.2% 20.3% 16.1% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 4.4% 3.0% 0.6% 0.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.2% 9.7% 8.3% 7.1% 4.6% 6.9% 5.4% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142021 NORA 08/29/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##