* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORA EP142021 08/30/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 38 37 38 39 46 51 56 60 61 62 65 68 73 76 77 82 V (KT) LAND 40 38 37 32 31 34 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 40 35 33 29 28 32 28 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 3 5 6 5 5 6 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -7 -3 -1 -2 -2 -1 0 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 179 240 287 328 352 334 89 232 158 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.9 31.0 31.1 30.9 30.9 31.2 31.8 29.9 29.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 170 169 169 169 169 169 169 161 154 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -51.3 -51.3 -51.2 -51.0 -51.4 -51.0 -51.3 -51.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 8 6 8 9 5 8 5 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 63 63 62 61 61 57 54 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 5 3 2 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 58 50 24 8 15 14 13 17 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 17 4 -10 -13 -6 -2 -25 4 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 0 2 2 3 0 2 -1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 0 5 9 -17 -19 -1 -27 -58 -58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.6 25.0 25.3 25.7 26.1 26.7 27.5 28.6 29.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 107.8 108.2 108.5 108.8 109.1 109.6 110.3 110.9 111.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 5 4 5 4 5 6 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 29 30 31 30 30 34 40 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 10 CX,CY: -5/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 441 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 15.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 10. 16. 21. 24. 26. 29. 32. 36. 38. 41. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -4. -7. -8. -9. -7. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -4. -3. -3. -4. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -2. -1. 6. 11. 16. 20. 21. 22. 25. 28. 33. 36. 38. 42. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 24.6 107.8 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142021 NORA 08/30/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.82 6.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.03 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.16 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.9 19.6 to 1.3 0.80 5.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 2.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.71 3.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 131.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.76 -4.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 30.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.26 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.4 56.6 to 0.0 0.92 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.38 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.8% 20.4% 17.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 2.0% 1.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.4% 7.5% 6.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142021 NORA 08/30/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##