* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IDA AL092021 08/31/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 28 27 27 28 29 31 29 35 38 37 35 31 27 24 25 V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 27 27 27 28 29 31 37 41 40 37 33 29 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 30 29 28 27 27 27 28 29 33 36 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 22 16 13 12 22 34 34 32 44 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 0 0 0 3 0 1 4 5 11 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 261 265 278 277 252 246 235 233 243 256 232 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.9 29.9 30.0 30.1 29.5 29.5 29.2 26.8 23.8 23.0 22.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 167 167 170 172 162 163 157 123 97 93 89 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 140 140 143 146 138 139 132 102 83 81 79 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.1 -52.3 -52.4 -52.3 -51.8 -51.8 -51.7 -51.3 -51.4 -50.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.8 0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.6 0.7 2.2 1.6 0.7 1.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 4 2 6 4 1 3 1 1 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 68 63 63 64 61 49 47 43 43 45 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 23 23 22 19 18 16 15 15 15 23 30 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -27 -50 -21 2 -4 38 60 95 120 135 162 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 123 70 35 23 36 13 24 37 -23 10 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 14 17 9 22 11 -10 -16 3 -17 45 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -293 -339 -396 -472 -554 -517 -287 -58 93 123 225 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 33.0 33.7 34.3 34.9 35.5 37.3 38.7 39.3 39.9 40.6 41.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 89.9 89.1 88.3 87.0 85.7 82.5 78.7 75.4 72.9 69.7 65.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 11 12 14 16 15 12 11 14 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 2 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 8 CX,CY: 2/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 751 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 9. 14. 18. 20. 22. 23. 24. 25. 25. 24. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 5. -0. -6. -13. -21. -26. -31. -38. -42. -44. -44. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 12. 12. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -4. -8. -11. -13. -15. -5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. -1. 5. 8. 7. 5. 1. -3. -6. -5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 33.0 89.9 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092021 IDA 08/31/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.49 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.03 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.61 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 96.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.84 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.60 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.3 28.3 to 146.3 0.70 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.40 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.6% 9.5% 6.6% 5.4% 3.9% 7.1% 5.7% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 4.1% 2.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 4.5% 2.9% 1.9% 1.3% 2.5% 1.9% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092021 IDA 08/31/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092021 IDA 08/31/2021 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 29 28 27 27 27 28 29 31 37 41 40 37 33 29 27 27 18HR AGO 30 29 28 27 27 27 28 29 31 37 41 40 37 33 29 27 27 12HR AGO 30 27 26 25 25 25 26 27 29 35 39 38 35 31 27 25 25 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 20 20 21 22 24 30 34 33 30 26 22 20 20 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT