* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IDA AL092021 08/31/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 19 19 20 21 25 28 32 33 32 29 28 26 23 21 20 22 V (KT) LAND 20 23 25 26 27 28 33 36 37 36 34 33 31 27 25 25 26 V (KT) LGEM 20 23 25 26 27 28 29 31 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 12 17 22 27 33 34 36 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 2 2 6 4 8 7 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 259 247 256 252 242 242 241 252 252 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.6 29.5 29.7 29.5 29.0 29.1 23.9 22.9 19.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 163 161 166 162 154 155 99 92 77 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 137 136 141 139 130 130 85 80 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.1 -51.9 -51.6 -51.3 -50.5 -50.4 -50.1 -49.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.5 1.0 -0.2 0.1 0.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 4 1 1 4 0 1 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 63 56 50 45 40 38 43 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 19 18 18 17 17 18 22 26 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 23 27 28 61 72 81 120 112 128 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -5 44 26 11 3 24 5 -2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 23 17 -3 0 2 5 6 -2 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -492 -585 -562 -524 -430 -193 9 100 221 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 35.1 35.9 36.6 37.3 37.9 39.0 40.0 40.7 41.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 87.1 85.8 84.5 82.7 80.9 77.3 74.0 70.3 67.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 14 16 15 14 14 13 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 4 4 5 4 4 4 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 10 CX,CY: 7/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 735 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -0. 3. 9. 15. 19. 23. 26. 28. 29. 30. 31. 31. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 7. 0. -8. -15. -22. -27. -33. -41. -46. -47. -47. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 12. 12. 12. 12. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -1. 3. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -0. 1. 5. 8. 12. 13. 12. 9. 8. 6. 3. 1. 0. 2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 35.1 87.1 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092021 IDA 08/31/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.45 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.03 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.69 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 76.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.86 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.51 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.6 28.3 to 146.3 0.75 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.21 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 51.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.48 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 1.9% 1.6% 0.4% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 0.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092021 IDA 08/31/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092021 IDA 08/31/2021 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 23 25 26 27 28 33 36 37 36 34 33 31 27 25 25 26 18HR AGO 20 19 21 22 23 24 29 32 33 32 30 29 27 23 21 21 22 12HR AGO 20 17 16 17 18 19 24 27 28 27 25 24 22 18 16 16 17 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT