* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IDA AL092021 09/01/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 33 33 34 30 26 22 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 29 33 30 30 30 30 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 29 32 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 19 26 35 40 45 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 2 5 3 12 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 252 248 241 234 229 220 208 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.6 29.7 28.9 29.2 28.6 22.5 19.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 164 167 154 159 150 95 85 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 143 148 135 139 132 87 79 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.9 -51.7 -51.6 -51.3 -51.1 -51.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 1 1 4 2 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 57 51 47 46 51 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 19 19 19 20 19 24 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 29 37 50 54 48 95 119 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 33 21 19 12 25 52 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 20 -5 -5 3 -15 18 -57 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -560 -552 -492 -321 -151 4 -32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 35.8 37.0 38.2 38.9 39.6 41.6 45.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 85.5 83.5 81.5 79.0 76.5 70.7 64.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 16 20 20 21 22 28 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 4 5 3 4 3 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 13 CX,CY: 11/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 675 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 1. 4. 8. 13. 17. 21. 24. 26. 27. 28. 28. 28. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 3. -7. -17. -25. -35. -42. -49. -60. -66. -69. -69. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. 12. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. 1. -1. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 8. 9. 5. 1. -3. -8. -12. -16. -23. -28. -29. -29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 35.8 85.5 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092021 IDA 09/01/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.14 0.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.03 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.73 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 117.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.82 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.57 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.2 28.3 to 146.3 0.73 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.24 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 46.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.54 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.3% 7.6% 5.4% 4.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 1.0% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.5% 2.9% 2.1% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092021 IDA 09/01/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092021 IDA 09/01/2021 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 28 29 33 30 30 30 30 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 25 24 25 26 27 31 28 28 28 28 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 23 27 24 24 24 24 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 20 17 17 17 17 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT