* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIFTEEN EP152021 09/08/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 40 43 50 54 58 58 56 52 50 47 44 41 43 45 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 40 43 50 54 58 58 56 52 50 47 44 41 43 45 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 34 36 39 41 40 38 35 32 29 26 22 18 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 2 2 3 6 9 10 3 5 7 4 3 5 5 4 13 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -3 -3 -3 1 6 7 5 8 7 7 9 9 6 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 354 234 253 242 235 251 243 266 190 333 340 359 78 97 131 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.1 28.4 27.0 25.1 25.1 25.5 25.4 24.3 23.8 23.3 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 151 149 149 148 148 144 148 133 113 112 116 115 104 98 92 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.8 -53.1 -52.7 -52.3 -52.5 -52.0 -52.1 -51.5 -51.8 -51.8 -52.0 -51.8 -51.8 -52.0 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 1.0 1.1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.3 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 7 8 5 7 4 5 3 3 2 1 1 1 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 63 62 62 62 60 54 51 48 45 43 41 38 35 30 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 14 16 16 18 17 18 16 15 13 12 11 10 8 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 49 61 51 61 64 51 55 20 20 0 9 0 10 5 4 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 30 41 41 34 38 16 49 -3 0 -48 -20 -46 -29 -23 -30 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 1 3 5 5 -3 5 2 4 8 5 1 1 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 283 295 307 300 298 298 171 184 225 323 366 446 573 655 714 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.1 18.3 18.4 18.9 19.3 20.3 21.5 22.8 23.5 24.1 24.5 24.5 24.1 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 107.3 107.6 107.8 108.1 108.3 109.3 110.7 112.2 114.0 115.4 116.4 117.6 119.0 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 3 4 5 6 8 10 9 8 6 5 6 6 5 4 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 18 18 18 18 17 10 21 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 525 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 24.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 20. 23. 24. 24. 23. 21. 19. 19. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 10. 9. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 9. 7. 5. 3. 2. 0. -1. -3. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 10. 13. 20. 24. 28. 28. 26. 22. 20. 17. 14. 11. 13. 15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 18.1 107.3 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152021 FIFTEEN 09/08/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.72 5.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.36 2.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.4 19.6 to 1.3 0.83 5.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.58 2.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 131.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.76 -4.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.15 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.28 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.2% 20.8% 18.9% 17.8% 0.0% 16.8% 15.1% 12.2% Logistic: 5.1% 16.6% 9.2% 4.9% 2.4% 7.4% 4.1% 1.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.8% 12.6% 9.4% 7.5% 0.8% 8.1% 6.4% 4.5% DTOPS: 1.0% 16.0% 5.0% 2.0% 2.0% 5.0% 14.0% 6.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152021 FIFTEEN 09/08/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##