* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIFTEEN EP152021 09/08/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 35 37 41 48 50 54 53 52 50 48 45 42 40 43 46 V (KT) LAND 30 31 35 37 41 48 50 54 53 52 50 48 45 42 40 43 46 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 33 35 37 37 37 35 32 30 27 24 20 18 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 2 4 5 7 9 9 9 6 6 5 8 6 3 5 8 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -1 -2 -1 2 3 4 5 7 4 3 4 1 3 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 258 261 263 239 243 277 284 280 250 323 337 16 87 104 120 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.3 26.6 25.1 25.1 25.6 25.4 24.2 23.8 23.4 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 152 151 150 148 149 149 147 129 113 112 117 116 103 97 92 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.1 -52.7 -52.4 -52.8 -52.4 -52.4 -52.2 -51.9 -52.3 -52.4 -52.3 -52.2 -52.1 -52.3 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.5 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 8 7 7 6 6 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 62 59 60 59 56 51 48 44 41 36 33 30 27 23 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 11 14 14 16 18 15 15 13 12 11 11 10 8 7 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 45 44 58 60 53 41 31 8 1 6 -4 3 -8 -4 1 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 30 35 34 37 24 19 21 -9 -19 -26 -30 -36 -54 -44 -71 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 2 2 5 -6 2 4 8 7 8 7 2 1 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 244 257 269 267 277 206 116 160 217 326 387 484 625 692 719 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.3 18.7 19.0 19.5 19.9 21.1 22.4 23.3 24.1 24.5 24.4 24.2 23.9 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 107.0 107.4 107.8 108.1 108.3 109.5 111.0 112.4 114.3 115.7 116.6 117.8 119.5 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 5 5 6 9 8 9 8 6 5 7 6 3 2 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 18 19 19 19 17 13 21 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 537 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 22.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 21. 23. 24. 24. 23. 21. 19. 19. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 5. 6. 5. 7. 5. 3. 1. 1. -0. -2. -3. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 5. 7. 11. 18. 20. 24. 23. 22. 20. 18. 15. 12. 10. 13. 16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 18.3 107.0 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152021 FIFTEEN 09/08/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.73 5.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.34 2.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.6 19.6 to 1.3 0.77 5.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.50 2.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 144.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.74 -3.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.15 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 10.5 56.6 to 0.0 0.81 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.34 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.2% 19.0% 17.2% 16.1% 0.0% 14.9% 13.2% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 2.7% 1.4% 0.5% 0.2% 1.1% 2.1% 1.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.1% 7.3% 6.2% 5.5% 0.1% 5.4% 5.1% 0.4% DTOPS: 1.0% 15.0% 4.0% 1.0% 1.0% 6.0% 12.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152021 FIFTEEN 09/08/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##