* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLAF EP152021 09/08/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 44 48 51 54 57 57 56 54 51 50 47 46 47 50 52 54 V (KT) LAND 40 44 48 51 54 57 57 56 54 51 50 47 46 47 50 52 54 V (KT) LGEM 40 44 47 50 52 53 50 46 42 37 32 27 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 7 7 9 7 8 6 2 2 5 4 5 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 0 2 4 3 7 10 7 9 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 219 221 237 263 266 268 285 256 346 351 50 167 175 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.8 28.7 28.4 28.0 28.0 28.2 26.3 24.7 25.1 25.2 25.0 24.9 24.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 150 150 147 143 144 146 126 109 113 113 111 110 105 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.1 -52.6 -52.9 -52.3 -52.0 -52.1 -51.9 -52.1 -52.2 -52.2 -52.2 -52.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.6 0.8 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 6 5 7 5 5 4 4 3 2 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 61 59 57 53 48 46 43 40 39 38 35 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 15 16 16 17 15 14 13 12 12 11 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 63 65 53 37 40 33 6 -4 9 2 3 -3 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 41 59 53 19 20 20 -23 -20 -26 -48 -34 -44 -39 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 3 4 3 0 -5 3 5 9 8 7 9 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 237 246 273 278 204 140 178 260 375 468 589 710 827 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.1 19.6 20.1 20.6 21.1 22.3 23.3 23.6 24.0 23.9 23.5 23.1 22.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 107.5 107.9 108.3 109.0 109.6 111.2 112.9 114.5 115.9 117.2 118.5 119.8 121.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 7 8 9 10 8 7 6 6 6 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 18 17 13 8 9 19 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 519 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 21.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 13. 14. 14. 14. 12. 11. 10. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -3. -3. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 11. 14. 17. 17. 16. 14. 11. 10. 7. 6. 7. 10. 12. 14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 19.1 107.5 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152021 OLAF 09/08/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.61 4.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.37 2.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.4 19.6 to 1.3 0.67 4.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 2.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.65 3.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 189.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.69 -3.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.10 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 16.9 56.6 to 0.0 0.70 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.46 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.6% 24.4% 20.8% 19.7% 11.5% 18.3% 14.2% 0.0% Logistic: 7.1% 11.4% 9.4% 4.0% 1.2% 3.5% 1.0% 1.2% Bayesian: 0.5% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.8% 12.4% 10.1% 7.9% 4.2% 7.3% 5.1% 0.4% DTOPS: 6.0% 33.0% 19.0% 9.0% 7.0% 13.0% 4.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152021 OLAF 09/08/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##