* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLAF EP152021 09/09/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 50 54 57 60 62 62 61 58 56 53 52 49 51 53 54 55 V (KT) LAND 45 50 54 57 60 62 62 61 58 56 53 52 49 51 53 54 55 V (KT) LGEM 45 49 53 55 57 57 55 51 46 40 35 30 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 9 10 8 7 5 2 3 2 6 6 0 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 2 4 5 7 7 8 4 5 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 228 240 251 263 263 263 178 46 4 13 67 318 191 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.8 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.5 27.6 26.0 24.8 25.3 25.4 25.1 25.0 25.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 151 148 147 147 149 140 122 109 114 116 113 111 111 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.6 -52.7 -52.5 -52.1 -52.0 -51.9 -52.0 -51.9 -52.2 -52.0 -52.1 -52.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.5 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 7 8 5 6 4 4 3 3 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 59 58 54 51 46 44 40 38 36 34 33 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 16 16 16 15 14 14 14 14 13 13 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 60 52 29 39 44 12 8 -6 10 8 3 0 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 49 53 26 25 21 1 -1 -13 -13 -24 -38 -67 -58 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 5 4 5 0 -4 4 6 8 10 4 6 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 233 262 284 202 133 133 171 292 393 522 658 779 888 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.7 20.2 20.7 21.2 21.7 22.9 23.5 23.5 23.5 23.3 22.9 22.6 22.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 107.8 108.2 108.6 109.3 110.0 111.6 113.2 114.8 115.9 117.2 118.8 120.2 121.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 7 8 9 9 7 6 6 7 7 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 17 14 11 10 15 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 6 CX,CY: -2/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 502 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 24.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 8. 7. 6. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 12. 15. 17. 17. 16. 13. 11. 8. 7. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 19.7 107.8 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152021 OLAF 09/09/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.58 4.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.35 2.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.4 19.6 to 1.3 0.61 4.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 3.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.71 3.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 228.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.65 -3.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.10 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 20.7 56.6 to 0.0 0.63 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.37 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.7% 25.6% 21.5% 20.3% 11.8% 18.8% 14.8% 0.0% Logistic: 7.1% 12.2% 9.4% 4.6% 1.4% 6.5% 2.0% 1.1% Bayesian: 0.3% 1.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.7% 13.2% 10.4% 8.3% 4.4% 8.4% 5.6% 0.4% DTOPS: 11.0% 38.0% 28.0% 16.0% 15.0% 9.0% 3.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152021 OLAF 09/09/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##