* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LARRY AL122021 09/09/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 80 82 82 83 80 63 58 40 38 36 34 30 24 21 18 16 V (KT) LAND 80 80 82 82 83 80 62 57 39 37 35 33 29 23 19 17 15 V (KT) LGEM 80 79 79 80 82 74 59 52 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 6 5 7 10 13 28 36 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 2 0 1 10 20 -2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 186 167 142 188 206 230 232 194 214 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.7 28.1 27.7 27.7 28.1 18.2 11.6 10.4 9.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 149 140 136 137 144 82 73 71 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 131 124 121 124 132 78 71 69 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -50.3 -50.9 -51.2 -51.0 -50.2 -48.7 -45.4 -42.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.5 1.4 1.8 1.8 1.6 1.5 0.3 2.6 2.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 9 6 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 53 52 55 58 51 57 58 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 37 36 36 34 34 34 28 33 26 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 9 -2 -17 0 24 56 200 366 371 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 54 39 21 15 63 79 141 111 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 5 23 25 42 21 -39 -81 -52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1380 1218 1053 834 640 250 379 893 1251 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 31.3 32.9 34.4 36.7 38.9 44.6 50.9 56.7 61.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 61.5 61.8 62.1 61.5 60.9 56.0 48.8 43.3 38.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 16 19 23 28 37 36 30 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 29 19 17 18 28 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 13 CX,CY: -5/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 589 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. -3. -10. -18. -26. -30. -34. -37. -40. -43. -44. -46. -46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. -1. -3. -2. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -8. -9. -11. -13. -15. -17. -20. -22. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -11. -7. -19. -20. -22. -22. -23. -22. -22. -21. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 10. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 2. 3. 0. -17. -22. -40. -42. -44. -46. -50. -56. -59. -61. -64. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 31.3 61.5 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122021 LARRY 09/09/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.82 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.15 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.73 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.75 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 588.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.32 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.47 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 46.4 28.3 to 146.3 0.15 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.32 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 16.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.83 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.5% 12.0% 8.7% 8.3% 6.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.7% 9.5% 7.3% 5.2% 1.9% 1.5% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 2.7% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.6% 7.2% 5.4% 4.6% 2.8% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 11.0% 8.0% 4.0% 1.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122021 LARRY 09/09/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122021 LARRY 09/09/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 7 8( 14) 9( 22) 7( 28) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 80 80 82 82 83 80 62 57 39 37 35 33 29 23 19 17 15 18HR AGO 80 79 81 81 82 79 61 56 38 36 34 32 28 22 18 16 DIS 12HR AGO 80 77 76 76 77 74 56 51 33 31 29 27 23 17 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 80 74 71 70 71 68 50 45 27 25 23 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT