* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLAF EP152021 09/09/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 66 71 73 73 74 68 61 55 51 48 46 42 44 46 47 48 V (KT) LAND 60 66 71 73 73 74 68 61 55 51 48 46 42 44 46 47 48 V (KT) LGEM 60 66 70 71 72 68 62 55 48 42 37 33 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 10 8 9 7 2 2 1 5 3 4 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 3 2 3 5 6 7 3 3 1 0 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 260 276 274 275 295 341 338 7 11 170 244 149 165 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.2 29.4 29.5 29.1 28.0 26.6 25.1 25.0 25.5 25.2 25.3 25.5 25.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 155 158 159 155 144 128 113 111 117 114 115 117 113 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.5 -52.1 -52.1 -52.3 -51.9 -52.2 -52.2 -52.5 -52.5 -52.5 -52.6 -52.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 8 6 5 6 4 5 4 3 3 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 56 52 49 48 45 41 37 36 31 29 27 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 16 15 13 14 11 11 11 10 9 9 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 21 32 37 21 10 7 0 8 6 0 -4 3 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 24 31 14 27 -15 16 -19 -28 -28 -53 -48 -65 -64 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 3 -1 -6 -5 2 7 7 10 5 4 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 256 207 120 28 52 109 195 324 458 611 767 911 1048 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.9 21.5 22.1 22.7 23.2 23.8 23.7 23.4 22.9 22.4 22.0 21.6 21.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 108.1 108.7 109.2 110.0 110.8 112.4 113.8 115.1 116.3 117.7 119.3 120.9 122.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 9 8 7 6 6 6 7 8 8 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 16 16 18 16 8 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 6 CX,CY: -2/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 501 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 26.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -2. -1. -4. -5. -7. -7. -9. -8. -9. -8. -8. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 11. 13. 13. 14. 8. 1. -5. -9. -12. -14. -18. -16. -14. -13. -12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 20.9 108.1 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152021 OLAF 09/09/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.50 6.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 7.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.26 2.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.4 19.6 to 1.3 0.56 6.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 8.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.89 6.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 322.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.54 -4.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.12 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.6 56.6 to 0.0 0.92 2.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.53 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 29% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 47% is 3.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 37% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 28.6% 47.0% 36.9% 26.0% 22.1% 20.9% 15.0% 0.0% Logistic: 27.0% 24.4% 24.3% 12.1% 6.2% 13.2% 1.0% 0.6% Bayesian: 1.5% 4.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 19.0% 25.2% 20.5% 12.8% 9.5% 11.4% 5.3% 0.2% DTOPS: 31.0% 17.0% 14.0% 13.0% 9.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152021 OLAF 09/09/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##