* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLAF EP152021 09/09/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 81 83 85 85 79 72 64 57 52 48 45 42 44 45 46 48 V (KT) LAND 75 81 74 83 83 78 70 62 56 50 47 44 40 42 44 45 46 V (KT) LGEM 75 81 85 84 81 73 64 56 49 42 37 33 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 9 10 7 6 2 4 8 9 3 4 7 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 4 5 5 6 7 6 3 -1 0 -3 0 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 265 231 263 298 320 230 313 351 34 84 85 157 150 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.7 29.6 29.2 27.9 27.0 26.3 24.9 24.8 25.3 25.1 25.4 25.5 24.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 161 160 156 143 133 125 110 109 115 113 116 117 111 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.0 -52.1 -52.0 -52.0 -51.8 -51.9 -52.0 -52.3 -52.2 -52.3 -52.3 -52.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 6 5 6 5 6 5 3 3 3 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 53 49 49 46 42 37 35 31 28 26 24 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 14 14 15 11 11 10 11 10 9 9 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 30 41 22 9 2 -1 5 4 6 2 7 4 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 19 22 24 2 -6 -4 -26 -33 -39 -69 -56 -64 -43 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 3 -6 -7 0 5 8 11 6 6 5 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 183 87 -6 29 48 75 203 323 508 690 852 980 1077 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.8 22.4 23.0 23.5 23.9 24.4 24.2 23.8 23.0 22.1 21.4 21.1 21.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 108.6 109.3 110.0 110.8 111.5 112.9 114.2 115.3 116.9 118.4 119.8 121.3 122.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 8 7 6 6 7 8 8 7 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 18 18 15 6 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 9 CX,CY: -3/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 484 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 14.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -3. -7. -11. -14. -16. -18. -21. -22. -24. -26. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -0. 0. 2. 4. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 4. 7. 7. 7. 5. 3. 2. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -0. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -9. -8. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -4. -1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 8. 10. 10. 4. -3. -11. -18. -23. -27. -30. -33. -31. -30. -28. -27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 21.8 108.6 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152021 OLAF 09/09/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 75.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.32 2.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.64 6.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.23 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.6 19.6 to 1.3 0.60 4.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 4.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.81 4.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 412.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.44 -2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.09 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.50 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 32% is 5.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 2.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 32.4% 25.9% 24.9% 23.4% 14.8% 18.9% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 14.4% 8.8% 11.0% 4.4% 1.3% 6.8% 0.6% 0.2% Bayesian: 3.5% 3.7% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 16.8% 12.8% 12.1% 9.3% 5.4% 8.6% 0.2% 0.1% DTOPS: 4.0% 7.0% 7.0% 9.0% 6.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152021 OLAF 09/09/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##