* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLAF EP152021 09/10/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 83 84 83 81 73 65 57 51 46 42 39 35 37 39 39 40 V (KT) LAND 80 70 63 64 55 53 46 38 32 26 23 19 16 18 19 19 20 V (KT) LGEM 80 72 65 65 63 58 52 47 41 34 30 27 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 11 11 7 4 10 11 12 8 5 5 7 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 5 3 4 6 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 243 287 297 302 278 279 306 2 47 12 94 115 136 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.8 29.1 28.3 27.3 26.7 25.6 24.7 25.0 25.2 24.9 25.3 25.5 24.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 163 156 147 136 129 117 108 112 113 111 115 117 110 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.1 -52.1 -52.0 -51.8 -52.1 -52.1 -52.5 -52.4 -52.3 -52.3 -52.5 -52.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 6 5 6 7 4 6 4 3 2 3 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 49 47 45 43 39 35 34 29 27 25 22 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 14 12 13 12 10 9 9 9 8 8 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 37 25 4 -11 -5 -1 11 2 0 8 12 -5 -11 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 21 12 -15 -18 -14 -37 -38 -38 -52 -51 -66 -35 -68 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -9 -6 2 4 11 10 14 7 6 2 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 60 -25 -18 8 0 121 243 381 519 651 795 914 1031 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.7 23.4 24.1 24.5 24.8 24.9 24.6 23.8 23.2 22.6 22.0 21.8 21.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 109.3 110.1 110.8 111.6 112.3 113.5 114.7 115.9 117.1 118.3 119.7 121.2 122.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 9 8 6 5 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 20 14 8 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 11 CX,CY: -4/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 462 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 2. -1. -7. -12. -16. -20. -23. -25. -27. -29. -31. -33. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 3. 2. 1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -6. -7. -10. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -9. -9. -11. -11. -10. -9. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -6. -4. -1. 1. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 4. 3. 1. -7. -15. -23. -29. -34. -38. -41. -45. -43. -41. -41. -40. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 22.7 109.3 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152021 OLAF 09/10/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 66.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.24 1.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 5.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.16 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.4 19.6 to 1.3 0.61 4.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.70 3.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.75 3.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 507.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.33 -1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.06 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 56.6 to 0.0 0.97 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.51 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.4% 20.5% 20.3% 19.8% 12.9% 14.2% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.6% 2.1% 3.5% 0.9% 0.3% 0.8% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.7% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.2% 7.8% 7.9% 6.9% 4.4% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152021 OLAF 09/10/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##