* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLAF EP152021 09/10/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 75 75 75 72 67 61 56 50 45 41 38 36 37 38 37 37 V (KT) LAND 75 83 84 83 80 75 69 65 59 53 49 46 45 46 46 46 45 V (KT) LGEM 75 80 78 74 70 62 56 51 44 38 35 32 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 11 5 4 5 8 7 10 6 7 11 10 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 5 7 7 6 4 3 -2 -2 -4 -3 -5 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 271 297 295 251 247 273 346 49 115 95 129 115 133 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.7 27.4 26.8 26.4 25.8 24.8 24.8 25.2 24.8 25.3 25.5 25.3 25.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 152 137 131 126 120 109 109 114 110 115 116 114 111 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.0 -51.9 -51.7 -51.8 -51.9 -52.0 -52.2 -52.2 -52.3 -52.4 -52.7 -52.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 7 4 5 4 3 2 2 3 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 48 48 45 43 40 36 34 31 28 24 22 20 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 13 13 11 11 10 10 9 8 8 7 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 23 7 -7 -4 -2 1 6 4 1 9 1 -10 -9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 14 -9 -5 -2 -24 -38 -44 -37 -57 -53 -59 -51 -70 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -10 -10 0 5 7 11 14 8 6 5 1 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -3 23 41 45 111 232 362 492 649 802 935 1036 1093 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.4 23.9 24.3 24.6 24.8 24.7 24.1 23.4 22.7 22.0 21.4 21.0 21.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 110.3 111.1 111.9 112.7 113.4 114.6 115.8 116.9 118.4 119.8 121.0 122.0 122.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 8 7 6 6 6 7 7 7 6 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 11 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 11 CX,CY: -7/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 544 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -8. -12. -15. -18. -20. -23. -25. -27. -29. -31. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -8. -11. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -9. -8. -7. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -5. -1. 1. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -0. -3. -8. -14. -19. -25. -30. -34. -37. -39. -38. -37. -38. -38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 23.4 110.3 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152021 OLAF 09/10/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 58.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.16 1.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.14 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.1 19.6 to 1.3 0.68 4.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 4.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.85 4.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 533.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.30 -1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 56.6 to 0.0 0.97 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.45 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.2% 18.0% 18.0% 16.9% 11.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.0% 2.3% 3.9% 0.9% 0.4% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.7% 6.8% 7.3% 5.9% 3.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 18.0% 3.0% 4.0% 6.0% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152021 OLAF 09/10/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##