* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLAF EP152021 09/10/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 66 66 64 63 60 55 51 47 44 42 40 40 42 43 44 43 V (KT) LAND 65 66 66 64 63 60 55 51 47 44 42 40 40 42 43 44 43 V (KT) LGEM 65 65 63 62 59 55 51 46 41 37 34 32 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 5 2 3 5 7 9 4 4 5 6 7 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 6 7 6 5 3 0 0 0 -1 1 -1 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 287 288 239 225 256 290 25 75 3 64 71 99 88 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.9 27.1 26.7 26.2 25.6 24.6 25.0 25.2 25.2 25.4 25.6 25.5 25.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 143 134 129 124 117 107 112 114 114 116 117 115 115 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.9 -51.7 -51.8 -51.9 -51.9 -52.3 -52.2 -52.3 -52.2 -52.5 -52.5 -52.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 6 7 5 4 6 4 4 3 3 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 46 42 41 39 35 33 29 27 25 23 20 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 13 11 11 11 10 10 9 8 8 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 8 -5 -5 -3 -7 7 8 1 -1 1 -4 -11 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -9 -5 -6 -29 -44 -36 -46 -68 -62 -49 -48 -57 -59 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -6 1 4 7 10 10 12 5 5 2 1 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 5 35 35 81 143 261 406 575 735 880 1005 1091 1142 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.9 24.2 24.5 24.6 24.6 24.2 23.4 22.4 21.6 21.1 20.8 20.5 20.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 110.9 111.7 112.4 113.1 113.7 114.8 116.0 117.3 118.6 119.9 121.3 122.2 122.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 7 6 6 6 7 7 6 7 6 4 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 6 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 556 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -6. -9. -10. -12. -13. -15. -17. -19. -21. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. 9. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -8. -11. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -8. -7. -5. -2. 1. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. -1. -2. -5. -10. -14. -18. -21. -23. -25. -25. -23. -22. -21. -22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 23.9 110.9 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152021 OLAF 09/10/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 64.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.22 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -18.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.07 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.6 19.6 to 1.3 0.82 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.78 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 499.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.34 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.41 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.3% 19.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 1.1% 2.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.5% 6.8% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152021 OLAF 09/10/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##